FXUS66 KHNX 181947 AAA

AFDHNX



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Hanford CA

1247 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026



.UPDATE...

Fire Weather section updated.



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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Warming and drying trend this weekend with 

temperatures rising to above average. 



2. An elevated risk for fire starts in Kern County due to low 

humidity and increased winds, particularly across the Mojave

Desert.



3. Next chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures begins

Monday.



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.DISCUSSION...

Shortwave ridging across the west coast continues to bring 

warm and dry conditions for the region through this weekend. 

Afternoon highs in the mid 80's are expected for the San Joaquin

Valley and Mojave Desert. Along with this warming, RH's are 

expected to dry significantly, with values down to 5-10% in the

desert and 10-15% for western Kern County. Combined with 

slightly elevated wind, elevated fire danger for the Kern County 

desert and minor fire risk for western Kern County will persist

through Monday. 



Looking to early next week, a cut-off low pressure system is 

expected to move through California starting Monday, bringing 

precipitation to the northern part of our CWA, becoming more 

prevalent by Tuesday. Current impacts are uncertain, but the 

Weather Prediction Center places at least 5% chance for 

excessive rainfall in the foothills north of Tulare County.

Current guidance places snow levels around 6500-7000 feet as 

the system passes through, lowering to 5000-5500 feet overnight 

into Wednesday. Probabilities for a foot of snow accumulation 

by Wednesday night are 60-70% north of Kings Canyon. 



This system is also expected to cause strong winds on the 

leeward side of the Sierra Nevada and into the Mojave Desert 

Slopes. Probabilities for 65 mph gusts are 40 to 55% for Tuesday

when the cut-off is expected to move through. This cut-off will

also lead to cooling temperatures, and by Wednesday are 

expected to be 3 to 5 degrees below normal in the Valley. 



Next weekend, a possible second system may brush by our area by

next Saturday, which may bring additional precipitation to the

mountainous regions of Fresno County and northwards, with

probabilities for 0.01 inches of rainfall at 30 to 50% by

Monday, April 27th. The Climate Prediction center also has our

region under leaning above normal for precipitation for both the

6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks, so another late season

system may be possible even as we approach our dry summer.



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.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. 



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.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong warm-up is expected for this weekend with afternoon 

temperatures approaching ten degrees above averages on Sunday. 

Humidity will continue gradually drying across the region as a 

result. Elevated fire risk is expected particularly for the Mojave

Desert with a decrease in minRH values between five and ten 

percent. Wind gusts will increase for the Mojave Slopes during the

afternoons. An approaching system brings a pattern change late 

Monday, with precipitation across much of the region anticipated 

from then until Wednesday afternoon. 



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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

None.



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.CERTAINTY...



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.

The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.



Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit

www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information

and/or to provide feedback.



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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

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public...ND

aviation....SM



weather.gov/hanford