FXUS65 KTFX 250548

AFDTFX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Great Falls MT

1148 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



 - Today through Monday it will be cold with a warm up expected

   for the middle of next week.



 - Today there will be isolated snow showers across North-central

   and Central Montana.



 - On Sunday and Monday there will be primarily mountain snow.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



 - Meteorological Overview:



Today the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central,

and Southwestern Montana. Another upper-level shortwave will move

over the area this morning. This combined with northwest flow 

aloft will bring isolated snow showers to North-central and 

Central Montana. Today it will remain well-below seasonal averages

for temperatures. On Sunday the upper-level trough remains over 

North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to the 

northwest flow aloft on Sunday it will remain well-below seasonal 

averages with isolated snow showers primarily in the mountains of 

North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. 



On Monday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, 

Central, and Southwestern Montana with an upper-level ridge 

approaching Montana. This will allow the area to be mostly dry with 

temperatures warming up slightly. However there will be snow in the 

mountains of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On 

Tuesday northwest flow aloft remains over North-central, Central,

and Southwestern Montana. This will keep temperatures cool with 

mountain snow showers and isolated snow showers in lower-elevation  

upslope favored areas. Wednesday through Friday an upper-level 

ridge gradually moves over North-central, Central, and 

Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to gradually 

warm up with mostly dry weather. -IG



 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:



Today there is a 40 - 60% chance for 1 inch of snow or greater 

across the mountains of North-central Montana. There are low 

probabilities for impactful snow along the Hi-Line. The greatest 

risk for any impactful snow is in a snow shower in which there is 

low confidence. As a result, all of the Winter Weather Advisories 

except for the Sweet Grass Hills Advisory were cancelled. See the 

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section details. Sunday through 

Monday there is a 50 - 70% chance for 4 inches of snow across the 

Little Belts and mountains of Southwestern Montana. Sunday through

Monday there is a 15 - 30% chance for one inch of snow or greater

for the lower-elevations of North-central, Central, and 

Southwestern Montana along and south of the Montana Highway 200 

Corridor. -IG





&&



.AVIATION... 

25/06Z TAF Period 



Scattered snow showers will impact portions of the CWA through the

period. The snow showers will become more isolated after 12z Sat.

Some of the heavier snow showers could reduce visibility below 1

mile for a short time. It is likely the unsettled weather

conditions will continue into Sunday as well. Mountains/passes

will be obscured at times across the CWA through the period.

Brusda



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GTF  38  23  41  24 /  60  40  20  20 

CTB  35  20  37  19 /  70  40  20  10 

HLN  40  22  45  24 /  60  40  30  20 

BZN  40  18  47  22 /  40  20  20  20 

WYS  36  10  43  19 /  60  10  20  20 

DLN  40  19  47  24 /  50  10  10  20 

HVR  35  20  40  20 /  70  50  10  10 

LWT  34  18  38  20 /  60  20  20  20 



&&



.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for Eastern 

Toole and Liberty.



Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Saturday for Bears Paw 

Mountains and Southern Blaine.



&&



$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls