FXUS65 KPSR 232305 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 405 PM MST Thu Apr 23 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .KEY MESSAGES... - The weather pattern for the rest of this week, and likely through most if not all of next week, will support continued dry weather with occasional periods of breezy to windy conditions. - Near normal temperatures will be common into next week with most days presenting lower desert highs in the mid to upper eighties. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large portion of the Western U.S. is under neutral and negative 500 mb height anomalies, with a deep low over southern Canada and weaker troughing across the Southwest.Quasi-zonal flow is currently seen across the local area on satellite and objective analysis and high clouds continue to stream in from the Pacific. With minimal change in the weather pattern over the past 24 hours, afternoon temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs right around seasonal level. Forecast highs for the lower deserts this afternoon are mostly in the middle 80s. Model guidance shows quasi-zonal flow persisting through Friday, but some of the changes for tomorrow include a few degrees of warming and breezier conditions, especially in Southeast CA in the evening, as a low amplitude shortwave trough pushes eastward inland just north of the local area. Latest NBM forecast highs Friday are in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the lower deserts. As the shortwave trough passes through southern UT Friday evening, enhanced westerlies will develop, especially in parts of Southeast CA with the influence of downsloping. Latest HREF is showing high probabilities of wind gusts >40mph for parts of Imperial County with the westerly sundowners Friday evening, at upwards of 80-90% for a few hours in some lower desert location to 100% in the southwest corner of the county. These winds may generate localized blowing dust channels in favored areas like the Anza-Borrego desert area west of the Salton Sea. Have held off on a Wind Advisory for now, but one may be needed and issued during the next couple forecast packages. Heading into the weekend the mid-level flow will turn more southwesterly and another slightly deeper shortwave trough will slide through the region late Saturday through Sunday, with PVA still mostly staying just north of the local area. This will continue the regionally breezy to windy conditions through the weekend. The strongest winds will focus over higher terrain areas and favored E-NE facing slopes with downsloping enhancements. For the local area, strongest winds will still be across parts of Southeast CA, with afternoon gusts up to 30-40 mph, and locally higher. Across South-Central AZ, winds will not be quite as strong, with gusts forecast to peak in the 20-35 mph range. Winds are forecast to be a bit stronger on Saturday versus Sunday across Southeast, and vice versa for Souht-Central AZ, associated with the passing of the shortwave. The shortwave this weekend will also lower the 500mb heights over the region and a strong 200mb subtropical jet will help pull abundant mid and high level moisture and clouds into the region, which will aid in lowering temperatures across the region. Temperatures are even forecast to fall below normal on Sunday, after being near normal Saturday, with lower desert highs only topping out in the upper-70s to lower-80s. The abundant mid and high level moisture will support at least a low chance (10-20%) for some light rain showers across the lower deserts Saturday night through early Sunday morning with modest ascent over the area from the strong jet and an advancing mid-level front. The better rain chances will be across higher northern AZ high terrain and windward side of theSoCal mountains. With fairly dry low levels it will be hard to see much more than a few sprinkles or a brief light shower that fails to fully wet the ground. Odds of receiving 0.10" of rain or more in Maricopa County is 10% or less. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/... The weather pattern is likely to repeat the same scenario next week as quasi-zonal flow takes over early next week before another weather system develops and eventually moves through our region at some point mid to late next week. After the below normal temperatures Sunday, readings should quickly climb back into the normal range by Tuesday and either stay stable or rise a bit further into the latter half of next week. Guidance is somewhat uncertain on the timing of the system later next week as it may get close to becoming partially cut off from the main flow. For now, guidance is leaning toward no cut-off system and pushing it through our region around next Wednesday or Thursday. If this occurs, we should get a slight dip in temperatures (slightly below normal) again before rising to above normal into next weekend. Models do show some potential light QPF amounts during the middle of next week with the passage of the weather system, but given the time of year we are not putting much faith in those chances. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major weather issues will exist through Friday evening under occasional high cirrus decks. Confidence is good that winds will behave similarly to the past 24 hours with westerly winds and modest gusts gradually weakening through the evening, then lingering longer into the overnight versus usual. Additional modest gusts are likely Friday afternoon after directions shift to west by early afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues will exist through Friday evening under periods of high cirrus decks. Confidence is good that winds will back between northerly overnight to southwest Friday afternoon. Gusts 20-25kt will become common across the region Friday late afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Near to slightly above normal temperatures and seasonably dry conditions will prevail through Friday. Winds will be lighter today than the past few days, but some afternoon upslope breeziness should result in occasional gusts to around 20 mph. A strong westerly sundowner wind is expected Friday evening across mainly parts of Imperial County, with gusts up to 35-45 mph. Expect MinRHs both today and Friday to be between 7-15%, while overnight recoveries will only be poor to fair at 30-45% for most locations. A mostly dry weather system is then expected to bring another round of breezy to windy conditions Saturday potentially leading to elevated fire weather conditions for some areas. A few light showers may develop late Saturday through early Sunday, but the chance for wetting rain is less than 10%. Humidities will improve over the weekend with MinRHs rising to 15-25%, but this will be short- lived as they are forecast to fall back to between 10-15% early next week. Seasonably breezy afternoon winds are forecast for early next week, but winds should fall short of creating widespread elevated fire weather concerns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM..Benedict LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Benedict