FXUS65 KFGZ 210916

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

216 AM MST Tue Apr 21 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Cooler and more seasonable weather arrives for the rest 

of the week. Expect gusty southwest winds each day with the 

strongest winds on Wednesday. Unsettled weather returns for the 

weekend. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...The weak ridge slides to the east this morning as a 

deepening Pacific low makes its way towards northern California. 

This will usher is some cooler but more seasonable air for the rest 

of the week as several waves pass nearby. The tightening pressure 

gradient between the approaching low and departing ridge will 

increase the southwesterly winds across the region for today and 

especially on Wednesday. Expect winds around 15-25 mph with gusts to 

25-35 mph through this evening, increasing to 20-30 mph on Wednesday 

with gusts to 35-45 mph, with some localized gusts to 50 mph 

possible. A Wind Advisory looks likely for parts of the area on 

Wednesday, mainly north and east of the Mogollon Rim and across the 

Navajo Nation and through the Little Colorado River. With the wind 

will come much drier conditions and relative humidity levels falling 

down into the single digits to teens. With this we will start to see 

some near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon with near-

critical to critical conditions on Wednesday across eastern Arizona. 

A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect for Navajo Nation and the 

Little Colorado River Valley for Wednesday. 



The low pushes inland into northern California, passing through the 

northern Rockies on Wednesday. The moisture remains well to the 

north of the region and chances for precipitation look unlikely 

based off the latest model runs. We will see the flow turn zonal 

across Arizona as we head into the latter half of the week and this 

will keep us seasonably cool with breezy afternoon winds each day. A 

weak shortwave may cross the region on Friday but with very limited 

moisture we aren't likely to see much more than some cloudiness 

arrive to the region along with continued afternoon breeziness. 



The weekend looks a little more unsettled as several shortwaves 

cross through the mid-level flow. Moisture may increase with each 

subsequent wave so with increasing cloudiness there may also be some 

chances for showers to return along with cooler temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION...Tuesday 21/06Z through Wednesday 22/06Z...VFR conditions.

Light and variable wind at less than 10 kts overnight. Winds S to SW

at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts after 17Z Tuesday, decreasing to 5-15

kts after 02Z.



OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/06Z through Friday 24/06Z...VFR conditions.

Winds S to SW increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-45 kts on Wednesday,

then SW to W 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts Thursday. Winds will 

remain elevated both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry and a bit cooler. South to 

southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph on Tuesday with 

minimum RH values between 10-20%. Stronger southwest winds to 15-25 

mph gusting to 35-50 mph on Wednesday with minimum RH values 8-20% 

and near-critical to critical fire weather concerns. A Fire Weather 

Watch is in effect for Wednesday for portions of eastern Arizona. 



Thursday through Saturday...Dry and breezy with near normal 

temperatures expected. Southwest to west winds at 15-25 mph each 

day. Minimum RH values between 5-20% through Friday then 15-30% on 

Saturday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday 

evening for AZZ109>114-139-140.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Meola

AVIATION...JJ

FIRE WEATHER...Meola



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff