FXUS65 KFGZ 200505

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

1005 PM MST Sun Apr 19 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Warmer weather will continue through Tuesday. Gusty 

southwest winds also arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday, a harbinger

of cooler temperatures for the middle and end of the week. Slight

chances for showers arrive for mainly eastern Arizona Monday and 

far northern Arizona on Wednesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...A s/wv ridge moving through the eastern portions of 

Arizona today will slightly amplify to our east Sunday and Monday. 

The ridge will move very slowly eastward, allowing Arizona to remain 

under above normal hghts, despite being on the western side of the 

ridge. Boundary layer flow is on the verge of reversing today and we 

are seeing, and will see, sharply rising afternoon temperatures 

for the next few days.



By Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong low will move from the EPAC and 

will shear northeastward into Utah. This will increase our winds and 

allow for a temperatures drop from Wednesday onward.



As far as precipitation, there are two chances, both are minimal. 

The first chance is on Monday, as return flow under the ridge brings 

higher dew points into eastern Arizona. A few high-based convective 

showers are possible as a a result. The second chance is with the 

cold front on Wednesday. However, this looks like it will be mainly 

be for far, far northern Arizona, as the front is largely dry and 

weakening as the parent low moves north.



After that, rather bland and normal looking zonal flow arrives for 

the end of the work week. Next weekend could feature some chaotic 

flow over the west that may result in QPF chances, but this is 

subject to much change at this point.



&&



.AVIATION...Monday 20/06Z through Tuesday 21/06Z...Expect VFR conditions.

There is a chance of light showers or thunderstorms along and north

of the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains from 18Z Mon to 00Z Tuesday.

Gusty/erratic winds to 35 kts could accompany showers. Light and variable

or terrain driven winds overnight, then S-SW 5-15 kts after 18Z Monday.



OUTLOOK...Tuesday 21/06Z through Thursday 23/06Z...Expect VFR conditions.

Light and variable winds Monday night into Tuesday morning. S-SW winds

10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts Tuesday afternoon, then SW 10-15kts Tuesday

night into Wednesday morning. After 17Z Wednesday, S-SW winds increase

to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees 

above average. Isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder are 

possible over the higher terrain on Monday, with things drying out 

again on Tuesday. Winds S-SW 5-15 mph Monday, increasing to S-SW 10-

20 mph, gusts to 30 mph on Tuesday. Minimum RH values 15-35% Monday, 

drying out to 10-20% on Tuesday.



Wednesday through Friday...Things turn cooler for the rest of the 

week, with temperatures dropping close to seasonal averages. Winds 

SW 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Wednesday, SW-W 15-25 mph on 

Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values between at 10-25% each 

afternoon.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Peterson

AVIATION...JJ

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff