FXUS65 KABQ 210752 CCA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 152 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026 - A few stray evaporating showers and potentially a dry thunderstorm across the central high terrain Tuesday will result in localized gusty and erratic wind gusts and patchy blowing dust. Very low chance of new fire starts from dry lightning. - There is moderate to high confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday and for at least central and eastern New Mexico on Friday. This will increase the threat of rapid fire spread with any fire starts. - Strong southwest and west winds will result in difficult crosswinds for high profile vehicles on north-south highways Wednesday through Friday and again Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 112 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Clouds from today high based shower and thunderstorm activity have mostly cleared out across western and central NM early this morning. However, low clouds are being observed across southeast NM due to low surface dewpoint depressions from moist southerly flow. The low clouds will burn off late this morning after sunrise. Shortwave ridging moves over the state today in the wake of yesterday's disturbance and ahead of an unseasonably strong upper low spinning off southern OR and northern CA. A few stray to isolated gusty virga showers and possibly a dry thunderstorm or two can't look to develop across the central high terrain and nearby lower elevations this afternoon due to some lingering mid level moisture and PWATs around 0.3 to 0.5 inches. Any shower activity tapers off around sunset with lingering mid level clouds and cool to mild temperatures overnight. The upper low off the Pacific coast today moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. 500 to 700 mb winds will increase during day to 30 to 45 kts by late in the day as the base of the upper low moves east towards the state. This will result in much drier and breezy to gusty southwest winds for most areas beginning late Wednesday morning into the afternoon and early evening hours. MOS and NBM guidance still shows the strongest wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph across northeast NM, the upper RGV near the CO border, and northwest NM around Gallup and Farmington Wednesday afternoon and early evening. With the gusty winds and minimum relative humidity values down around 6 to 10 percent, moderate to high confidence exists for a high risk for rapid fire spread across all of northern and central NM outside of the high peaks. Areas that experienced dry lightning strikes yesterday, like the southwest and south central high terrain, will be monitored for potential new fire starts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 112 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026 West winds remain very gusty across the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning due to 700 mb winds around 40 to 45 kts and the base of the trough passing overhead. Gusty west winds expected across the area along and behind the Pacific front Thursday. Winds across western NM will not be as strong as Wednesday, but will be as strong if not a touch stronger across central and eastern NM. MOS and NBM guidance shows the strongest wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph along and east of the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon and early evening. As a result, another day of a high risk for rapid fire spread is expected for most areas with the focus along and east of the Continental Divide. As the initial lead upper low moves northeast over the northern Great Plains Thursday night into Fridaymorning, it will send a backdoor front with some gusty north winds through northeast NM. Medium range guidance now shows a 2nd shortwave rotating south and east across the northern and central Rockies around the upper low circulation over Saskatchewan, Canada. This will keep strong upper and mid level westerly flow over New Mexico which will help quickly mix out the backdoor front across northeast NM and result in another day of breezy to gusty southwest and west winds for much of the state. The strongest wind gusts of up to 45 mph look to be across the northeast and central highlands with peak wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph across the rest of northern and central NM. Confidence is highest for another day of a high risk of rapid fire spread across the northeast and central highlands, with near critical fire weather conditions for the rest of the state. Southwest winds remain gusty on Saturday, but slightly weaker than Friday, as another upper level trough moves over the central and southern Great Basin. Precip chances look to return to northern areas Sunday into Monday as upper disturbances scrape this part of the state. Southwest winds on Sunday look to potentially be much stronger than Saturday and at Wind Advisory criteria along and east of the central mountain chain based on MOS guidance. During this active pattern, temperatures will be right around average for mid April. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Low clouds across far southeast NM are currently expanding west and north towards KROW as of the writing of this discussion. MVFR to IFR ceilings expected until just after sunrise across southeast NM. Elsewhere, mostly clear skies and light winds. Increasing mid level clouds during the day Tuesday with a few stray to isolated gusty showers across the central high terrain. Main hazards will be gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 40 kts. Can't rule out a dry lightning strike or two. Any shower to storm activity dissipates around sunset with some lingering mid level clouds heading into the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026 ...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MID TO LATE THIS WEEK... Warmer with light south and southwest winds areawide and some stray to isolated dry and gusty showers across the central high terrain Tuesday. Gusty southwest winds Wednesday as an system moves into the western U.S. These stronger winds combined with minimum relative humidity values in the upper single digits to very low teens will result in critical fire weather conditions across much of northern and central New Mexico outside of the mountain peaks. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the entire fire weather forecast area. Poor humidity recoveries, especially along and east of the central mountain chain, Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The system moves across the intermountain West Thursday resulting in gusty west winds, continued very low minimum relative humidity values in the mid single digits to low teens, and another day of critical fire weather conditions, with areas along and east of the Continental Divide being favored. Southwest and west winds remain very gusty Friday among near average temperatures and slightly higher minimum relative humidity values around 10 percent. Confidence in critical fire weather conditions is highest across the northeast and central highlands with at least near critical fire weather conditions across the rest of northern and central New Mexico. Not as windy Saturday with potential for another day of critical fire weather conditions across the northeast highlands. Low precipitation chances look to arrive to northern areas Sunday and Monday as disturbancesscrape the state. Guidance shows stronger southwest winds Sunday compared to Saturday with critical fire weather conditions potentially across south central and much of eastern New Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 80 45 75 39 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 75 37 70 29 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 74 41 72 34 / 10 10 0 0 Gallup.......................... 76 35 70 29 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 72 39 68 33 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 76 38 73 33 / 10 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 73 40 72 35 / 5 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 74 47 76 42 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 72 42 70 37 / 10 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 36 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 81 40 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 68 36 64 28 / 10 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 72 49 72 41 / 10 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 75 42 73 38 / 20 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 42 68 35 / 10 10 0 0 Red River....................... 65 34 62 30 / 10 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 68 30 65 28 / 10 10 0 0 Taos............................ 75 38 72 34 / 10 10 0 0 Mora............................ 72 41 71 37 / 20 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 80 45 79 36 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 75 46 74 39 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 44 78 37 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 54 79 47 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 53 81 46 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 83 45 83 40 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 51 82 46 / 5 5 0 0 Belen........................... 83 46 84 44 / 5 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 82 50 81 43 / 5 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 82 44 83 41 / 5 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 82 50 82 44 / 5 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 82 45 83 43 / 5 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 78 52 78 45 / 5 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 80 51 80 46 / 5 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 84 50 86 47 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 48 74 42 / 5 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 75 49 75 43 / 5 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 76 45 75 41 / 5 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 37 78 38 / 5 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 44 73 39 / 5 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 76 44 76 41 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 45 75 43 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 77 51 78 49 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 45 73 44 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 75 43 75 38 / 10 5 0 0 Raton........................... 79 40 78 37 / 10 5 0 0 Springer........................ 81 40 81 39 / 10 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 76 43 74 41 / 10 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 81 49 84 47 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 79 46 80 43 / 10 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 86 49 87 50 / 5 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 83 50 84 49 / 10 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 87 53 90 51 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 83 51 88 50 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 84 51 88 51 / 0 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 85 48 88 50 / 10 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 86 51 91 52 / 10 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 80 49 83 50 / 20 0 0 0 Elk............................. 77 46 79 49 / 10 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ101-104>106-120>126. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...71