FXUS64 KTSA 180527 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 - Showers and storms persist along a cold front through the overnight period before exiting Saturday morning. A few storms may be strong to severe. - Much cooler conditions expected this weekend behind the front. Frost development possible for portions of the area Sunday morning. - Mostly dry conditions expected through mid next week before a stronger storm system provides increasing rain and storm chances Thursday/Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Thunderstorms along a cold front will continue to move south and east through the remainder of E OK and NW AR through the overnight hours. Some storms may become strong to severe and produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, though the severe threat will wane with time. Localized flash flooding may also develop in locations impacted by prolonged heavy rainfall...mainly in NE OK and NW AR. Strong post-frontal north winds are occurring behind the storms tonight, and expect this to continue through the overnight hours with gusts 30-40 mph. Some gusts greater than 40 mph are possible, but should remain isolated and brief. Storms exit the area by Saturday morning, with skies clearing from north to south through the day. High temperatures will be much cooler than recently observed within the post-frontal airmass...likely remaining in the 60s. Winds remain breezy through Saturday afternoon, but will gradually decrease by the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Effective radiational cooling will provide a cool night Saturday night, with lows in the mid-upper 30s and lower 40s. The typically colder spots may experience some frost development, especially in NW AR. Otherwise, it will be a quiet night weather-wise. High pressure remains in place through Sunday with mostly clear skies and temperatures warming into the 70s. Southerly flow returns Monday ahead of an approaching disturbance which could bring some low shower/ thunder chances to the area Tuesday/Wednesday. However, at this time, it appears most locations will remain dry with this system. Amplified troughing moves through the intermountain west mid-week and then ejects into the plains Thursday and Friday. This will bring widespread rain and storm chances back to the region, with at least some potential for severe weather. Temperatures warm back to near/above average for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Broken line of thunderstorms will continue to move across northwest AR and southeast OK over the next few hours with the passage of a cold front. A period of MVFR ceilings and at least brief IFR vis will accompany the front/storms with potential wind gusts in the 30-35 knot range. Overall conditions will improve with VFR conditions prevailing by sunrise. Gusty north winds through the afternoon will diminish mid to late afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 66 40 74 45 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 64 38 74 43 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 64 36 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 62 35 71 42 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 60 38 69 44 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 63 38 72 44 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 61 38 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 F10 63 38 72 44 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 64 41 72 44 / 30 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...14