FXUS64 KOHX 240420 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1120 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1047 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 - Showers and storms return Friday. The severe threat is very low, though a strong gust or two could occur. - There is a threat for all modes of severe weather Monday. Stay tuned for forecast updates over the weekend. - Unsettled weather will continue through next week, bringing beneficial rain to all of Middle TN. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Clear conditions prevail overnight with a light southerly breeze. Overnight lows will bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s. We will undergo a pattern change starting tomorrow as shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast. As of now, the ridge is holding tight through a chunk of the day tomorrow, stifling our already limited overall severe chances during the day. With that being said, a weakening front will approach from the west in the morning, and depending on how much instability is available, a few cells could pop over our western counties. Forcing is weak during this time and lapse rates are poor, around 6 C/km or less, so not favorable for sustained updrafts. Later Friday night, a shortwave will ripple through the zonal flow aloft, bringing an additional wave of showers and storms. The better dynamics will be displaced to our south and east with this wave, however there will be better forcing with bulk shear around 20 kts, so pretty marginal overall, but a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out, especially across our southern counties. The front will continue its trek east, bringing widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms to all of Middle TN into the early morning hours Saturday. Once showers clear the plateau, a quick ridge will build in and stick around through Monday morning, keeping things mostly dry and warm. Temperatures will generally be near 80. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Monday...Let's talk about what to expect first. All modes of severe weather still appear possible Monday, especially along and west of I-65. That means hail, straight-line winds, and tornadoes. Exact timing details remain uncertain at this point given it's still several days out, but there is an increasing signal that this could be a nighttime event. Whether day or night, we encourage you to review your safety plans now just in case. Now, let's talk setup. A sharp, negatively-tilted shortwave will push over the Plains with a low pressure center developing at the surface. As this low moves northeast, it will deepen and the low- level jet will increase to between 40-50 kts. With these winds being southerly, warm, moist unstable air will be pulled in, increasing dewpoints and in turn, instability. Bulk shear will also take a big jump to around 40-50 kts with mid-level lapse rates over 7 C/km, lending to large hail potential. As the front nears, low-level helicity values will start to increase, lending to a tornado threat. East of I-65, there is a pretty big drop in all of the aforementioned parameters, but those ingredients are still there, so don't let your guard down. As of now, the evolution of this looks to be a strong line of storms with a much lower potential for discrete cells out ahead, but this will be something to monitor over the coming days. While the better dynamics overall are just off to the northwest of Middle TN, we still have all the ingredients we need for an all-hazard severe threat, so stay tuned for updates through the weekend. The front will continue its journey east, keeping lingering shower activity around through the day Tuesday. The upper air pattern remains active for the remainder of the week with multiple waves bringing additional rounds of precip/storms in. In general, there is a 20-40% PoP in each day through next Friday. The good news is this will help our dry, struggling soils out there. A couple of inches with all of the systems combined appear likely, so while it won't be a drought-buster, it will certainly help the deficit. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 VFR conditions persist this taf cycle. Southerly winds will remain between 7-9 kts with occasional gusts of 15-20 through the overnight hours, shifting more southwesterly and slightly increasing after 15Z. A weak front will bring a low chance for SHRA/-TSRA to CKV, BNA, and MQY between 18Z-24Z. High-res models do not have a good handle on this, but parameters overall are unimpressive at this time. PROB30s for -TSRA are in the taf until confidence or thunder chances increase. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 61 84 63 80 / 0 40 90 80 Clarksville 61 81 62 80 / 0 60 80 20 Crossville 54 79 57 71 / 0 20 80 100 Columbia 59 84 61 79 / 0 30 90 80 Cookeville 57 81 60 73 / 0 20 80 90 Jamestown 55 80 57 72 / 0 20 80 90 Lawrenceburg 59 82 60 78 / 0 20 90 80 Murfreesboro 59 84 61 79 / 0 20 90 80 Waverly 62 81 61 80 / 0 60 80 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Baggett