FXUS64 KOHX 211120 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 620 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 617 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 - There are no rain chances through Thursday; we will enjoy plenty of sunshine the next three days. - A more unsettled weather pattern will emerge on Friday, with rain chances lasting through the weekend and into next week. - There is the possibility of severe storms across the mid state on Monday/Monday night with the passage of a significant cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Tonight should be a slightly warmer night, with lows in the 40s across the area. Some places near the AL state line and the Tennessee river will linger near 50 degrees. High pressure continues to dominate the forecast into the mid-week period, with warmer air coming into the mid-state beginning today. RHs could dip into problem territory for people with fire weather concerns, but the light winds we will see today should mitigate the need for any products. Highs today will get into the mid 70s to low 80s in Middle Tennessee under some partly cloudy skies. Same forecast for Wednesday, highs in the 70s and 80s with some lingering clouds that give way to a sunny day in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Our next rain chance will arrive into the weekend, and doesn't look to let up until the next work week. Since last night, some things have changed in the forecast. Firstly, probabilities for greater than or equal to an inch of rain over the entire weekend (Friday through Sunday) have gone down about 10% from what they were 24 hours ago. This follows the drying trend we have seen with past rain events in this drought: as we get closer and guidance gets a better handle on the system, the expected rain amounts decrease. As of now, probabilities for seeing greater than or equal to an inch in QPF through Sunday is around 30 - 50%. The second thing to change is the introduction of a possible marginal severe threat on Saturday. Can't say anything certain because of it being 5 days out, but some of the forecast soundings are interesting. 2000 J/kg of CAPE and 35 knots of shear is not shabby, but I'd like to see some better hodographs before messaging anything certain 5 days out. Certainly something to monitor as we get into the medium range guidance here in a day or so, and see if the trend continues. No matter if there is severe weather or not, there will be rain throughout the weekend, and into next work week. Temperatures will stay in the 70s for highs because of this, but will increase back into the low 80s by the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle. A southwest breeze will kick up around 16Z and provide gusts of 20-25 kts through 00Z/Wed for CKV/BNA/MQY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 80 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 75 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 81 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 76 51 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 76 51 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 79 52 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 81 52 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 81 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Unger