FXUS64 KMRX 210556

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

156 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026



- Elevated fire danger continues through early this evening mainly 

in Southwest North Carolina where fuels are still dry and winds are 

slightly stronger.



- Patchy frost possible northeast TN and southwest VA tonight into 

Tuesday morning.



- Dry conditions and a warming trend through the week. Increasing

  chances of rain and storms Friday night and into the weekend. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026



In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the 

surface, high pressure is currently centered over the Great Lakes. 

With good mixing expected this afternoon due to clearing clouds, 

relative humidity is expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent 

range for most of the region. Elevated fire danger this afternoon 

and evening will be mainly in Southwest North Carolina and maybe the 

East Tennessee mountains where fuels are still dry and winds are 

slightly stronger. 



Dry weather will continue through Friday. One possible exception is 

a very low chance for a light shower in Southwest Virginia on 

Wednesday afternoon as a system moves to our north. Patchy frost is 

possible in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia late tonight 

into Tuesday morning with clear, calm conditions expected with 

cooler temperatures. 



Otherwise, warm and sunny until the next system approaches the 

region on Friday with the best chance of rain Friday night into 

Saturday. A weak ridge will be over the Southeast this weekend. A 

series of weak impulses moving through the pattern could bring 

showers and storms off and on into early next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026



VFR and dry through the forecast period with light winds

developing out of the SW later today. Clear skies at this time may

lead to mid to high clouds during the day.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  52  80  52 /   0   0  10   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       78  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  47  76  49 /   0   0  10   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...McD

AVIATION...KS