FXUS64 KMAF 210845 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 - A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor, and eastern Culberson County. Additional and more widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected each day through at least Sunday. - High winds are possible in at least the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains from Thursday afternoon into next week. - Near-normal temperatures are expected today, followed by a warming/drying trend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 WV imagery this morning shows a much more serene weather pattern over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, as a negatively-tilted upper trough exits to the east. However, a persistent stratus deck remains in place, accompanied by areas of fog. Hi-res models keep this around through late morning, after which skies scatter out, allowing thicknesses to begin increasing and temperatures to climb to more respectable levels. Highs this afternoon should top out a couple of degrees above climatology on average, with cooler temperatures in the east offset by higher numbers in the west. Isolated convection is still expected over the Davis Mountains and vicinity, but not as widespread as was forecast 24 hours ago. Tonight, stratus will make a valiant attempt to redevelop back west into the Permian Basin, but not to quite the extent tonight, and will be much more fleeting. Return flow will continue advecting rich Gulf moisture into the area, yielding overnight minimums ~ 4-5 F warmer than this morning's...5-10 F above normal. Meanwhile, an upper trough will make landfall tonight on the west coast north of the Bay Area, nudging the upper ridge almost to the MS Valley by early Wednesday afternoon. Leeside troughing on the Front Range will veer winds out west to the southwest, adding a downslope warming component to the mix, further increasing thicknesses and afternoon highs approaching 10 F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Thursday, the west coast trough ejects northeast into Canada, increasing westerly flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The latest NAM develops a modest mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes, where high winds should develop during the afternoon, and last at least through Friday morning. This pattern will keep highs each day well-above normal. In fact, the LREF forecasts a secondary upper trough to follow the first, making landfall in SoCal over the weekend and maintaining strong westerly flow aloft over the region into next week. Thus, high winds will be possible off and on through at least next Tuesday morning, when yet another trough makes landfall on the west coast. While this synoptic pattern favors pleasantly-warm temperatures, it's also windy and dry, and will exacerbate critical fire weather conditions. See fire wx discussion below for more details. Thus, warm temperatures are anticipated into next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 IFR stratus and even a little fog will persist through late morning, before scattering out to a spars cu field, w/bases ~ 4.5-7 kft AGL. Light surface winds will continue veering to southeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Given the drying/warming trend, attention now must necessarily turn to fire weather. While radar estimates suggest up to 2.60" fell in the area over the past few days, the bulk of where it fell (east) is not coincident with where the most critical fire wx is anticipated over the next week (west). Should higher 20-ft winds develop over the next week, as mentioned above, which would mean NOT the NBM, then critical fire wx conditions will be concentrated over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas beginning Wednesday, and peaking over the weekend, mostly likely Sunday. Wednesday, leeside troughing will induce increased 20-ft winds over the Guadalupes and adjacent plains. This will combine with critical minimum relative humidity to yield critical to extreme (6-8) RFTIs. While ERCs will be relatively low, it won't take much for efficient fire spread should one get going. Thus, we'll get the party started with a Fire Wx Watch Wednesday for the area of concern. Unfortunately, this synoptic pattern favors cumulative parameters through the weekend, so conditions will just worsen by the day. Worse and more widespread critical fire wx is expected each day through at least Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 79 60 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 87 54 92 59 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 79 60 87 64 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 86 58 92 62 / 10 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 78 57 81 57 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 85 55 90 55 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 80 47 84 49 / 20 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 80 60 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 81 60 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 84 58 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...99