FXUS64 KLZK 230543 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1243 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 - Some showery activity possible through the morning hours across mainly western Arkansas - Seasonably warm temperatures continuing through the early next week - Severe weather potential beginning as early as Thursday, with more favorable severe weather conditions Friday and continuing daily through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 An embedded weak shortwave downstream of an amplified ridging feature aloft is currently resulting in some showery activity along the periphery of southern Arkansas, with the more favorable dynamics allowing for some larger coverage later this morning across western Arkansas, with hints of some thunder also possible. Any of these showers may result in some localized amounts up to one quarter inch amounts, but not much widespread accumulations are anticipated even in these favorable areas. Temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal today as highs in the 70s and 80s are anticipated across the state. A significant synoptic pattern change is in store over the next couple of days, as a Pacific trough shifts eastward and then amplifies going into the latter portions of the week. This will result in this quieter period of weather to become more active east of the Rockies as the severe weather threat ramps up tomorrow, mainly to the west of the state. A prolonged period of enhanced southerly flow through the lower levels will bring increasing moisture levels, which will improve the thermodynamic profiles late this week and continue through the weekend. Multiple waves will rotate around this upper low circulation that'll be centered along the US/Canadian border, anywhere from Thursday into early next week. Thus, there will be multiple days with some level of severe weather potential across the region and vicinity during this period depending on the pattern evolution. The first round looks to be in the late Thursday night into Friday timeframe as a cold front sweeps across the state. Limited severe threat would be anticipated during the overnight period, with increasing threat throughout the day Friday. Post-front, the pattern evolution becomes less certain as to how favorable the environment may continue to be across the region going into and through the early portions of the weekend as weaker zonal flow seems to be favored. A more robust jet pushing east of the Rockies seems to be the consensus by Sunday, which would present another round of severe weather potential Sunday into Monday. After the activity on Monday, a period of quieter weather seems to be favored amongst ensemble guidance, as temperatures continue to remain above normal levels going into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 MVFR to VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. MVFR ceilings and, occasionally, visibilities will favor the southwestern terminals during the overnight hours, prior to improving by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southerly direction, with afternoon gustiness 20-25 kts. Variable cloudiness early in the period is anticipated to become BKN to OVC through the overnight period before becoming SCT to BKN late in the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 81 66 77 60 / 20 40 100 50 Camden AR 82 65 81 61 / 20 20 80 80 Harrison AR 78 64 76 56 / 20 80 90 20 Hot Springs AR 79 65 76 61 / 20 40 90 60 Little Rock AR 82 66 78 61 / 20 30 90 70 Monticello AR 83 66 83 63 / 20 10 80 80 MountIda AR 79 64 76 60 / 20 50 90 60 Mountain Home AR 79 63 76 56 / 20 70 90 20 Newport AR 83 67 77 62 / 20 30 100 50 Pine Bluff AR 83 65 81 62 / 20 20 90 80 Russellville AR 81 65 77 59 / 20 60 90 40 Searcy AR 82 64 78 59 / 20 30 100 60 Stuttgart AR 83 67 80 63 / 20 20 90 70 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...77