FXUS64 KLUB 211117

AFDLUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

617 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026



- Patchy fog possible over souther Rolling Plains early Tuesday

  morning. 



- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday

  through Thursday. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026



Showers from earlier this evening have either dissipated or shifted 

out of the CWA. However, chances remain off the Caprock through the 

next few hours. Low stratus has filled in over much of the region 

and is expected to prevail overnight through Tuesday morning. 

Lingering cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures in the 50s 

for much of the region. The low stratus layer will begin to 

dissipate Tuesday morning from northwest to southeast as surface 

winds shift to the southwest with clouds expected to linger over 

areas off the Caprock through the late afternoon. This will give a 

decent temperature gradient Tuesday afternoon with highs in the 

lower to mid 80s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 

70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Southerly winds will prevail 

overnight before slightly shifting to the southwest for the first 

part of Tuesday. Winds will shift back to the south by late Tuesday 

afternoon. Cloudy skies will fill back in over areas off the Caprock 

through late Tuesday evening and overnight, keeping lows in the 

upper 50s to lower 60s. On the Caprock, where clear skies are 

expected, lows will be in the lower 50s.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026



No change to the long term forecast for this package with dry 

conditions and fire weather possible. Upper ridging will fill in 

over the region late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Slight 

thickness increases will warm temperatures to the mid 80s to lower 

90s across the region Wednesday. These warmer temperatures are 

expected to continue through the rest of the week. At the same time 

as the upper ridging moves overhead, an upper trough will push 

onshore over the Pacific Northwest and continue to track across 

northern CONUS through the rest of the week. This in turn will shift 

upper winds over southwest CONUS to the southwest resulting in the 

development of lee troughs every afternoon Wednesday through Friday. 

Tightening in the pressure gradient from these surface troughs will 

give way to breezy south to southwesterly winds everyday. Windy and 

dry conditions will give way to elevated to critical fire danger 

each afternoon from Wednesday through Friday, especially on the 

Caprock. A dryline looks to set up along the I-27 corridor Wednesday 

afternoon, however no thunderstorms are expected ahead of the 

dryline. We could see a possible cool down to start off next week 

with the GFS indicating a cold front will push southward through the 

region late Saturday.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026



IFR to MVFR CIGs will prevail at all TAF sites through mid- 

morning, before slowly improving back to VFR CIGs by the afternoon

time frame. Expect generally light southerly speeds around 10 to

15 kts at all terminals. 



&&



.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...10

LONG TERM....10

AVIATION...12