FXUS64 KLCH 250017 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 717 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk of severe weather outlined by the SPC along / north of HWY 190 to Toledo Bend. A Marginal Risk covers the remainder of the forecast area to the coast - Tonight's setup is a highly conditional opportunity for severe (wind and possibly large hail) storms after midnight. Guidance favors the greatest coverage across the I-49 corridor and east, however, a low end threat remains over interior southeast TX. - Temperatures are forecast to climb well above normal through the middle of next week, potentially reaching the low 90s north of I-10. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 A fairly expansive shortwave extends across the Midwest with the Polar and subtropical Jet sandwiched in between over the Southern Plains before decoupling west of the Mississippi River. A series of perturbations will create active weather across the ARKLATEX region and descend SE toward the LA/MS coast. Convection through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours will cluster together north of the forecast area and move along /east of the I-49 corridor with gradual weakening as it propagates southeast. Locally, isolated showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder remain possible into the early evening hours. Hereafter, a secondary wave of convection will initiate during the overnight hours across northern Louisiana and dive south-southeastward toward NOLA. This secondary nocturnal round is what is driving the conditional risk of sever weather. As my colleague last night pointed on their AFD, this type of pattern can have a challenge in determining the spatial extent to which these storms can tap into. As it stands now, there will be sufficient instability across central and south central LA likely ranging 1300-1700 J/kgK MLCAPE above the boundary layer cap. Strong mid-level lapse rates, in excess of 7.5C/km with low LCL under 300m are generally supportive of severe weather... However, this development of severe weather let alone maintenance of storm evolution will be STRONGLY dependent upon moistening of a capping inversion- which majority of the short term guidance holds in place across the forecast area. Additionally, the potential of the outflow of a developing MSC running too far ahead of its convection is also a very realistic possibility. Thus, it is important to stress the the current Marginal and Slight risks for severe weather that cover the forecast area are VERY conditional upon the aggravating factors(decent CAPE, lapse rates, cold pool forcing) remaining in balance after midnight. Otherwise, we can expect the secondary round of convection between midnight and 7AM to weaken and diminish toward scattered showers moving south along the I-49 corridor. Given light winds outside of thunderstorms, there is a potential of patchy fog across SETX and portions of SWLA through dawn. Not expected any fog development to be dense, however. The remainder of Saturday morning, post sunrise, is expected to trend mainly dry, but also mostly cloudy as we still remain under a very humid Gulf airmass. The aforementioned shortwave is forecast to be slow moving toward the east indicating another round of MCS like convection on Sunday may be possible along the similar north central to southeast Louisiana orientation, largely missing the local forecast area west of the Atchafalaya. Again with other thunderstorm ingredients present, this convective potential still remains highly conditional and subject to some spatial variations. Temperatures are forecast to increase Sunday to the mid or upper 80s despite periods of cloud cover in the AM. As the parent shortwave over the Midwest begins to accelerate toward the Great Lakes region, the potential of rainfall decreases Monday and Tuesday, while warm, humid southerly fetch holds. The remainder of the forecast period through Thursday is expected to trend warmer with interior locations likely reaching toward the low 90s. Isolated storm chances for interior locations will continue to waffle in and out of the forecast. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Storms have largely remained clear of the forecast area today and complexes are much further north than expected at this time stamp. Even still, storms are filling in across northeast LA and central MS and will slowly move south through the coming hours. Based on the 00z RAOB coming in now, there is a robust cap in place just off the surface. Above the sfc though there is plenty of energy and a cool airmass which could possibly support storms with frequent lightning, hail (some large and some smaller) and gusty winds as far southwest of the main cluster as AEX. Most of these storms will stay east of the cenLA terminal, though. And with sundown, the intensity of these individual cells should be diminishing. Another cluster now going on in southeast OK is set to slide down into the region and could impact a corridor from AEX to Lower Acadiana. Best timing has been included in area TAFs. This is a very conditional environment and there is a small chance of storms to be strong when moving through after midnight. After daylight on Saturday, the remainder of the day should be dry with improving ceilings and light breeze. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Moderate south-southeast winds and low seas will prevail over the period as a series of disturbances move north of the region. There remains a low end chance of showers and storms moving across south Louisiana move into nearshore waters overnight into Saturday morning. Where these cells move, anticipate locally higher wind speeds and gusts and quick downpours as well as possibly cloud to water lightning. Otherwise, slack ridging developing near the coastline will bring most rain chances for coastal waters to generally less than 10 percent. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 South to south-southeast winds will continue over the coming days as a series of disturbances develop and move north of the region. These winds will continue the surge of moisture inland and daily RH minimums in the 50 to 70 percent range can be anticipated through at least the weekend. Once this afternoon's round of isolated activity calms, a secondary round of convection will try to move through east Texas, Central and portions of Southwest Louisiana after midnight into Saturday morning. These could also have strong winds and quick heavy downpours. A widespread wetting rain is unlikely with either system passage trending west into southeast Texas given the proximity from the stronger moisture convergence expected toward the Mississippi && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...11