FXUS64 KFWD 252334 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 634 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather is possible across parts of North Texas through this evening with areas along and north of I-20 having the highest chances for storms. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible. - An unsettled pattern will continue through next week with additional storm chances expected across the region, particularly Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The primary forecast challenge through the short-term period continues to be the convective initiation potential versus expected storm intensity, though confidence in at least scattered development has increased near the Red River. A quasi-stationary boundary across North Texas will gradually lift northward through the afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen across northwest Texas with a dryline extended southward through Central Texas. This will result in a favorable triple point configuration near the Red River by late afternoon. Strong to locally extreme instability is expected to develop across the region with MLCAPE values of 2500-4000 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates. While large-scale ascent remains modest at best, the approach of a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max will provide sufficient forcing for thunderstorm initiation, especially near the Red River (triple point). The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight areas along and north of the Red River in a Moderate Risk, with far North Texas residing along the southern fringe of this higher-end threat. Widely scattered thunderstorms are now expected to develop this afternoon into early evening, with the highest coverage near the Red River. Given 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear, storms will quickly organize into intense supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The tornado threat will be maximized near the warm front where locally enhanced low-level shear and backed surface winds will exist. Farther south, storm chances remain more conditional due to lingering capping along the dryline. However, the environment remains highly favorable, and any isolated storm that develops will have the potential to rapidly become severe. Through the evening hours, storms are expected to track east- southeast along and south of the Red River. With time, some upscale growth into clusters is expected, resulting in an increasing threat for damaging winds as the cluster of thunderstorms moves from northwest to southeast. Storm chances will linger in the east through the night thanks to a slow- moving outflow boundary that will keep ascent over our eastern- most counties. The surface low responsible for the development of the triple point will linger into Sunday, once again sharpening the dryline in the afternoon. Abundant low-level moisture will be in place, however, a lack of forcing for ascent will keep the chance of storm initiation low. Some CAMs hint at a few convective attempts across Central Texas in the afternoon, however, the capping inversion will likely prevent the updrafts from rapid growth. For now, we'll maintain storm chances across Central Texas at 10-15%. The odds favor a precipitation-free day for North and Central Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. With a dryline persisting through the night and a shortwave moving overhead, a few isolated storms cannot be ruled out Sunday night into Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The active weather pattern will persist going into next week aslarge-scale troughing continues to impact the western United States. This will keep south to southwesterly flow in the lower- levels, supplying continued moisture into North and Central Texas. The dryline will once again be draped from north to south across the region, keeping the threat of isolated thunderstorms alive in the afternoon. Rain chances will increase on Tuesday as a slow-moving cold front slides south of of Oklahoma. This front will supply strong forcing for ascent and a blossoming of showers and storms is becoming more probable Tuesday afternoon. Instability values above 3000 J/kg and strong effective shear will increase the potential for strong to severe storms. Exact location and timing is unclear this far out but areas east of I-35 may have the greatest threat. The cold front is expected to continue sliding southward by the middle of the week, ushering in cooler temperatures areawide. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with 60s and 70s to finish out next week. Passing shortwaves will lead to periodic rain chances each day, with an overall low severe weather threat. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Main concern through the near-term is potential thunderstorm activity near the TAF sites mainly between 01-04z this evening. While convection struggled to develop farther south on the dryline late this afternoon, thunderstorms are underway near a triple point in Northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma which should have a tendency to advance ESE with time. While the potential for thunderstorms immediately at the TAF sites remains rather low this evening at about 10-20%, impacts due to thunderstorms nearby are possible as one or more convective clusters is likely to encroach on areas just north of the TAF sites at a minimum. While a brief wind shift due to nearby outflows is possible, this scenario is too low of a probability to formally include in the TAFs at this point. Storms may continue to impact arrivals/departures for eastern parts of D10 beyond 04z as convective activity advances into East Texas tonight. Otherwise, another round of MVFR cigs can be expected tomorrow morning before scattering to VFR occurs by midday. Outside of any convectively induced wind shifts at the TAF sites, a southerly wind at 10-15 kts will prevail with a few gusts over 20 kts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas this evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 91 73 93 / 20 10 10 10 Waco 71 90 71 90 / 10 10 10 10 Paris 64 85 69 87 / 80 30 20 20 Denton 67 90 71 93 / 30 10 10 10 McKinney 68 89 72 92 / 40 10 10 10 Dallas 71 93 73 93 / 30 10 10 10 Terrell 70 88 71 91 / 30 10 10 20 Corsicana 72 91 74 93 / 20 10 10 20 Temple 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 Mineral Wells 67 95 70 94 / 10 0 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Stalley