FXUS63 KTOP 211141

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

641 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry and warm until Thursday when the next chance for thunderstorms 

  arrives, including the potential for severe storms.



- Cooler Friday into early next week with off-and-on chances for

  rain. Highest chances (60-70%) come Sunday into Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026



Shortwave ridging is shifting east into the Plains this morning 

ahead of a closed low approaching the western US coast. A tight 

pressure gradient has remained over the forecast area overnight, 

leading to elevated surface winds which has limited diurnal cooling. 

Once mixing commences this morning, gusty southwest winds will 

quickly warm temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s this 

afternoon.



Mid-level ridging holds through Wednesday, supporting dry conditions 

with above-normal temperatures before the aforementioned closed 

upper low ejects across the Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. 

The best forcing with this wave will likely reside north of the 

forecast area initially, but large-scale ascent increases Thursday 

afternoon/evening as the southern periphery of the wave ejects 

across the Central Plains. Model soundings suggest low stratus 

builds in Thursday morning with a stout capping inversion present 

through at least mid afternoon. There could be some elevated showers 

or storms Thursday morning, but not expecting any severe weather 

given weak instability and shear. A dryline advances into central 

Kansas by Thursday afternoon with moderate instability and 

sufficient, although modest, shear in place ahead of this feature to 

support strong to severe storms. Key factors that will dictate the 

severe risk Thursday afternoon/evening remain uncertain, including 

how long the cap will hold through the day, how long stratus will 

linger, how far east the dryline advances, and how fast the cold 

front sweeps through the area. The cap may hold through the 

afternoon and preclude any convective development until better 

forcing arrives with a cold front late Thursday afternoon into 

Thursday evening. IF storms are able to form during the afternoon or 

early evening, they could be severe and produce large hail, damaging 

winds, and perhaps a tornado. Confidence in this scenario is low at 

this time. Convection is most likely to develop once the

stronger forcing arrives along the cold front, with storms

likely to grow upscale into a line of storms and pose a 

damaging wind risk. A strengthening low-level jet Thursday 

evening elongates the low-level hodograph, supporting the 

threat for mesovorticies to form along any line segment that 

does evolve. There are a lot of details that still need to be 

ironed out in the coming days, so be sure to stay up to date 

with the latest!



A cooler and more seasonable airmass moves in behind the boundary 

for Friday through the weekend. Perturbations moving through the 

zonal flow keep some low chances for precipitation in the forecast 

Friday-Saturday with a stronger wave lifting northeast across the 

Plains Sunday into Monday, bringing higher (60-70%) chances for

showers and storms.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026



VFR conditions prevail through the majority of the period. Southwest

winds will remain gusty through the day with uncertainty in how

long gusts persist after sunset and into the overnight hours. 

Maintained gusts for now, but wouldn't be surprised if there's 

a lack of gusts for a few hours after sunset. MVFR cigs are 

likely to build in near the end of the period.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Flanagan

AVIATION...Flanagan