FXUS63 KTOP 210512

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry and warm until Thursday, when the next chance for thunderstorms

  arrives, including the potential for severe weather.



- Cooler late this week into next week with off and on rain

  chances.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026



Northwest flow aloft holds this afternoon while the next large upper 

low can be seen circulating off the Pacific coast via water vapor 

imagery. At the surface, high pressure dominates much of the eastern 

CONUS while lee troughing has developed, leaving a tightening 

pressure gradient over our area. Southerly winds have turned gusty 

in response and will likely remain breezy into Tuesday, with the 

pressure gradient relaxing slightly that night. In the meantime, the 

BL looks to stay fairly well-mixed tonight, which could keep 

temperatures warmer than forecast overnight into Tuesday morning.



Upper-level ridging continues to favor warm and dry weather into 

Wednesday, all while the low moves across the western US. The main 

part of this low looks to eject across the Northern Plains into 

Thursday, bringing the best lift associated with that feature to the 

north of this area. Still, it's a large enough system that the base 

of the trough as well as an associated speed max should help to 

generate some lift along with a dryline and cold front moving across 

the region. An early look at instability, shear, and sounding data 

in the environment just ahead of these boundaries indicates the 

potential for all severe hazards to be in play IF all the 

ingredients come together just right. It's still several days out, 

and cluster analysis shows some differences in the strength of the 

main upper low, which could impact the timing and placement of the 

aforementioned surface features. Additionally, guidance is showing 

cloud cover in the morning and afternoon, so if this prevents the 

atmosphere from destabilizing as much as currently indicated, this 

could temper the severe threat as well. All this to say, plenty of 

uncertainty exists as is typical in this time frame.



A cooler air mass arrives behind the front for Friday, and sticks 

around into early next week. The large upper low stalls out and may 

even retrograde in the northern US and southern Canada during the 

weekend. Embedded perturbations within the flow aloft over us keep 

precipitation chances around through much of this time period, but 

shouldn't be a washout as rain does not look continuous.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026



VFR conditions continue. Surface winds at KTOP/KFOE have relaxed

to some extent, but think winds increase overnight with at least

intermittent gusts. This would mitigate LLWS concerns, but expect

some low-level turbulence. Southwest winds remain gusty through

the day Tuesday before gusts likely drop off again after sunset.

There is a signal for some MVFR stratus to advect towards terminals

Tuesday night, but this would likely occur after 06z.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Picha

AVIATION...Flanagan