FXUS63 KPAH 211054 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 554 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire danger this afternoon thanks to good mixing leading to lower dewpoints and breezier winds, and in turn lower RH values. - Lake Wind Advisory in effect this afternoon and evening for breezy and gusty conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Ridging continues to build aloft over the Plains and will move over the area by Wednesday night. A tighter sfc pressure gradient today along with good mixing will lead to breezier conditions with winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. EPS gusts are mainly greater than a 60% chance of gusts over 25 mph. Also lowered dewpoints to NBM 10th percentile due to the anticipated mixing. This coupled with the winds will make for lower RH values (25-35%) this afternoon and elevated fire danger. Have issued an SPS for elevated fire danger. Have also issued a Lake Wind Advisory for the breezy conditions. NBM chances for 80+ degrees increase tomorrow and Thursday. NBM has generally a 40-60% chance for eastern portions of the area to reach 80 tomorrow. NBM has a greater than 70% chance of reaching at least 80 on Thursday across the board. The upper ridge pushes east on Friday as a leading shortwave around a Canadian border low pushes into the Upper Midwest. This system brings a cold front and round of showers/storms to the area as early as Friday morning (60-80% chance). Showers last at least till Saturday morning. There are model discrepancies over whether or not showers/storms continue on Saturday (depending on frontal placement). NBM currently has a 20-30% chance roughly behind the front (just to our south Saturday). NBM also has generally a 30-60% chance of CAPE values greater than 1,000 J/kg in SEMO Friday afternoon and generally 30-50% in western portions of southern IL. So a few rogue strong to sever storms can't be ruled out Friday. Monday a shortwave aloft brings another sfc low through the Midwest and brings another round of showers/storms and another cold front through the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 552 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Breezy southwesterly winds are expected today at 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Some high cirrus is expected to traverse the area. Skies will clear over night along with lighter winds below 10 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /10 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...HICKFORD