FXUS63 KMPX 250540

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures with rain

  this weekend, most likely across western Minnesota. Chance 

  for thunder on Sunday.



- A wet start to next week is expected with widespread rain with

  some thunderstorm chances in southern Minnesota on Monday.



- Cooler and drier weather for the rest of the week with some

  below freezing temperatures possible across central Minnesota.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026



The low that brought in the cooler air after yesterday's rain 

and thunderstorms continues to spin over Saskatchewan. This low 

will remain rather stationary through Saturday and as it spins 

there will be a few rounds of vorticity that could drive some 

vertical ascent related to the PVA over the Upper Midwest. This

is much less than what we saw yesterday, so more light rain 

chances rather than yesterday's thunderstorms. On Saturday, 

temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals and there is 

not much instability. Sunday looks to warm up past seasonable 

normals and thunderstorms will be possible. Any chance for

strong storms on Sunday will remain well to our south so strong

to severe storms are not expected here.



As the Saskatchewan low finally moves out on Sunday another low

will move across the plains and into the Midwest on Monday. 

This low will be the main synoptic driver for our next main 

system. This looks to be a dynamic system that will be able to 

draw up Gulf moisture to provide for ample rain chances. Based 

on current tracks within global ensemble systems it is likely 

that the center will pass through Iowa and then into the Great 

Lakes. This mean track keeps much of the Upper Midwest on the 

cooler side of the low. On this cooler side there will be little

chance for severe storms and rain showers are the forecast. 

Closer to the center of this low and south of the low, temperatures

will be warmer and allow for greater instability and therefore 

thunderstorms. Favorable deep layer shear is also present in 

much of the guidance south of the low such that SPC already has

a Day 4 outlook out which in includes the south central part of

Minnesota. The exact track of this low will be key in

determining what impacts occur Monday. As a shift to the south 

will keep all of us in the cooler rain, but a shift to the north

even slightly could increase the chance for the strong to 

severe storms in southern Minnesota. 



By Tuesday morning the low will move into Canada with only a 

chance for some lingering showers. As is common for lows like 

this there will be ample cold air advection behind this system. 

This will keep Tuesday and Wednesday highs generally in the 50s 

with overnight lows in the 30s. There will provide a good chance

for a freeze across much of central Minnesota and frost chances

elsewhere. So if you got an early start to your growing season,

watch out for this cold air next week. Current global 

deterministic models keep this colder airmass present thought 

the end of the week and the flow doesn't start to shift away 

from the cold air until the following weekend. So expect a cool 

end to the month of April.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026



High clouds have moved in across the western two thirds of

Minnesota early this morning. Have introduced -SHRA mentions in

this TAF set for KAXN, KRWF, and KSTC with rain already moving 

into eastern South Dakota. However, there's still some 

uncertainty so opted to go with more PROB30 than prevailing 

mentions. Winds are expected to remain below 10kts with 

direction varying from northwest to northeast. 



KMSP...Opted to keep -SHRA west of KMSP again for this TAF 

period, but will reassess with the 09z AMD. 



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR, bcmg MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.

MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind E 10-15G25kts.

TUE...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...NDC

AVIATION...Dye