FXUS63 KJKL 201450

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

1050 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Frost or light freeze conditions are expected across most of

  eastern Kentucky late tonight into early Tuesday morning. 



- Below normal temperature will last through early Tuesday, 

  followed by warmer weather to last into the weekend.



- The next expectation of area wide rain is not until the weekend. 



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1050 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026



Secondary cold front is settling across eastern Kentucky late this

morning with a period of mid-level cloud cover and even a few

sprinkles over far eastern counties. The lingering sprinkles

should depart into southwest Virginia within the next 30 minutes.

Thereafter, remaining cloud cover should shift southeast and 

clear the JKL CWA by 2 PM. In the wake of the front, anticipate a

dry northwesterly breeze at 5 to 10 mph through the afternoon. 

Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to range from mid 50s 

northern foothills to mid 60s in deeper valleys near the KY-TN 

border while dew points drop back into the 10s and 20s. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) 

Issued at 745 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026



An impulse is dropping into the base of a longwave trough

departing to our east this morning. An associated weak cold front

is dropping south through the JKL forecast area, accompanied by

clouds. There are some weak returns on radar, but it looks like

it's virga. Have included only a mention of sprinkles in the 

forecast for this morning. The clouds and any sprinkles should be 

on the decline as they exit to the south and southeast today.



Skies will be clear tonight as surface high pressure passes by to

our northeast. Low level flow will turn out of the south tonight

and begin warm air advection. However, most locations should

decouple this evening, which will allow for cold temperatures.

Will expect valleys to bottom out around 30 east of I-75 by dawn

on Tuesday, and a Frost Advisory was issued for those counties. 



Warm air advection tonight will result in a steep inversion by

Tuesday morning. With nothing more than high/thin clouds expected

during the day Tuesday, insolation should result in a significant 

warm-up as we mix upward through the inversion.



.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) 

Issued at 745 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026



The long term period will start with WNW flow aloft while ridging

approaches from the west. A cold front will be struggling to make

southward progress through IL/IN/OH as it loses momentum ahead of

the approaching ridge. Moisture advection will occur ahead of the

front, and will probably allow for shower/thunderstorm development

near the front. Won't rule out some of these making it into our

northeast counties, but they are more likely closer to the front.

The front doesn't make it here and mild and dry weather should

last from Wednesday night into Friday as the upper ridge arrives.



The ridge aloft is expected to weaken as a couple of shortwaves

coming out of a western CONUS trough ripple through it. This

should finally allow for some rain during the weekend, but the 

details of how it unfolds are likely to change.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)

ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026



VFR conditions are forecast through the period. A cloud deck in 

the 5-9K ft AGL range is currently dropping south through the 

area. A few sprinkles may occur beneath the clouds. Skies will 

clear as the clouds depart to the south and dry up during the day.



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for 

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-086>088-104-106>120.



&&



$$



UPDATE...GEERTSON

SHORT TERM...HAL

LONG TERM...HAL

AVIATION...HAL