FXUS63 KJKL 192001

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

401 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Much cooler weather will last through early Tuesday. Frost is

  possible in northern locations tonight/early Monday with a frost

  or freeze possible across much of eastern Kentucky on Monday 

  night/early Tuesday. 



- Elevated fire weather concerns exist through at least 

  Wednesday.



- Above normal temperatures return late in the week, along with

  the next chance for area wide rainfall by the weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)

Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026



Much cooler and drier weather has arrived behind the cold front which

is now departing off the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard. Thermometer readings

range from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the JKL CWA this

afternoon, except in the mid 40s to low 50s above 2,500 feet while

dew point temperatures range mainly in the 20s. The surface weather

map shows our area on the northeastern edge of a surface high

centered over the Ark-La-Tex. To our northwest a secondary cold front

(associated with a surface low over northern Quebec) is draped from

Lake Huron to northern Missouri and then NW to along the eastern

slopes of the Canadian Rockies. An even cooler and drier Canadian

high is found behind this secondary cold front with readings 

across Wisconsin, Minnesota and North Dakota in the 30s/40s and 

dew points in the single digits/10s.



Fair and very dry conditions will initially be in place this evening,

allowing temperatures to fall off quickly after sunset. While

available moisture will be limited, cloud cover will increase

overnight as the secondary cold front drops south of the Ohio River.

Some of the guidance supports a little light precipitation, likely in

the form of a few sprinkles, with the frontal passage. The clouds

should arrive in time to slow temperature falls and prevent 

widespread frost concerns over most of eastern Kentucky. There is 

a low chance that some patchy frost might form in a few sheltered 

places out ahead of the increase in cloud cover, especially far 

southern Kentucky, but those areas will also be going into the 

night with some of the warmest temperatures. The front and 

associated cloud cover should clear areas near and north of I-64 

late in the night and that is when the northernmost counties, 

especially Fleming County, have a chance of quickly dropping into 

the mid 30s and experiencing frost formation. Therefore, a Frost 

Advisory has been issued for Fleming County from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT 

on Monday (aligning well with Frost Advisories from LMK, ILN, and 

RLX). An SPS for frost was issued for counties just south of the 

Frost Advisories from Elliott to Montgomery counties where there 

is a lower but non-zero chance for some frost, especially if the 

frontal passage trends toward the faster side. Outside of the 

Frost Advisory, most locations should see lows in the upper 30s to

lower 40s (even so a few of the coolest spots outside of the 

Frost Advisory could briefly reach the mid 30s as well).



On Monday, any lingering cloud cover and/or sprinkles will exit into

TN and VA during the morning with a cool northwesterly breeze

continuing throughout the day. High temperatures are only expected to

reach the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday afternoon in spite of

abundant sunshine while dew points dip into the mid 10s to the mid

20s, driest northeast. The Canadian high pressure center scoots to

over the Eastern Great Lakes by Monday evening and crosses the

Appalachians Monday night. The proximity of the high will maintain

the very dry air mass, clear skies and light winds across our area

for most of Monday night (some return flow may try to develop over

central Kentucky toward daybreak Tuesday, but that will still be

after most of a night ofcooling). Given the expected efficient

radiative cooling conditions and very dry air mass, temperatures are

likely to fall rapidly after sunset on Monday evening, especially in

the sheltered Coalfield Valleys, and that has warranted the issuance

of a Freeze Watch from 1 AM EDT Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for most

areas southeast of the Bluegrass and east of I-75. In the Freeze

Watch area, GFS COOP MOS supports lows of 28 to 32F in many of 

the valley locales. Outside of the Freeze Watch area, temperatures

are still expected to approach the freezing mark (and even reach 

it in some of the cooler spots) but the dryness of the air mass 

could limit frost formation. Given how advanced our growing season

is this year (April is already running 8.5 to 10F warmer than 

normal thus far and more like May), a Frost Advisory may 

eventually be needed Monday night for most or all of our remaining

counties outside of the Freeze Watch area. Growers are encouraged

to take steps now to protect frost/freeze-sensitive vegetation.



.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026



Overall guidance shows reasonable agreement for the first part of 

the long term period. The period begins with a return of above 

normal temperatures, as high pressure of the east provides return 

flow across the Ohio Valley. Tuesday will feature mostly sunny skies 

and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Most of the guidance does show a 

weak cold front trying to make it southward toward Kentucky by 

Wednesday. However, strengthening mid-level riding and weak moisture 

return will make this feature overall lack luster. Even so the NBM 

does show enough signal for a few showers (chance of rain 15-40 

percent) and perhaps a rumble of thunder mainly along and north of 

the Mountain Parkway. Then drier and warm weather return to the area 

Thursday, with afternoon highs topping out into the lower 80s.



By the end of the week and going into next weekend there is good 

signal for the ridging to break down. We will see another cold front 

approach the Ohio Valley by Friday. The front will however 

eventually stall out around the Ohio Valley. This is where guidance 

does diverge on the synoptic pattern and leads to more uncertainty. 

Even so, the pattern does shift to a more active one with quasi-

zonal mid-level flow. Right now the best chance of rain is Friday 

night into Saturday where chance of rain will generally be in the 50-

60 percent chance range, which these lower PoP numbers show some of 

the aforementioned uncertainty. The mean of the guidance would 

suggest rainfall amounts of around three quarters of an inch or less 

from Friday night into Sunday for most locations. Hopefully this 

will provide at least some relieve to the ongoing weather issues, 

but the lack of better upper level support keeps us from the higher 

rainfall amounts desired right now.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026



VFR conditions were observed at TAF issuance and will prevail

through the forecast period. Any shallow cu at around 8 to 10 kft

AGL this afternoon will dissipate this evening with the loss of

diurnal heating. A moisture-starved cold front drops in from the

north tonight with a period of mid-level cloud cover and the

possibility of a sprinkle or very light rain shower. 



Winds will be westerly at 8 to 14 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts 

for many terminals this afternoon. Winds slacken tonight and 

become variable with the front before turning northerly around 5 

kts on Monday.



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ044.



Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for 

KYZ052-060-069-086>088-104-106>120.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...GEERTSON

LONG TERM...DJ

AVIATION...GEERTSONJKL-642395