FXUS63 KICT 200845 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 345 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm today through Thursday. - Thunderstorm chances increasing Thursday afternoon early Friday morning. Some could be strong to severe. - Additional low storm chances heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Early this morning, water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis shows a large and powerful trough beginning to exit northeastward off of the North American continent. Out west, an upper ridge has built out across the Rocky Mountains and Four Corners region while the next storm system is just now moving into the PNW. Closer to home, surface winds continue to remain out of the south allowing for warmer and more moist air to gradually return northward. Today will be the first of a handful of days where afternoon highs will rise into the 70s and 80s across the forecast area. The warmest temperatures will be across central Kansas where drier air is forecast to reside over the next few days. These warm, dry, and breezy conditions will promote very high grassland fire danger along and west of Kansas State Highway 14 this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Marginally lighter winds on Tuesday will slightly mitigate fire weather potential, but low end very high GFDI may still be possible for brief periods across central Kansas during the afternoon and evening hours. THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND... Another system is anticipated to arrive into central and northern plains on Thursday likely bringing another round of showers and storms to the area. Mid-range guidance shows copious amounts of upper level forcing for ascent overspreading the central plains in response to a powerful upper trough translating eastward over the region. At the surface, a cold front will crash southward and collide with a northeast-to-southwest oriented dryline. This setup looks fairly similar to that of last Friday: ample instability and shear being more than sufficient to support severe storms, but strong forcing for ascent paired with shear vectors parallel to the boundary promoting a linear/messy storm mode. Therefore, the severity of this activity may be somewhat limited. Regardless of the severity, this system should bring another round of meaningful rainfall to many locations Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. Beyond Thursday, guidance continues to show persistent southwesterly mid/upper flow from a developing subtropical jet remaining over the central and southern plains this weekend and into early next week. Should sufficient moisture be in place, additional showers and storms may be possible through the beginning of next week. However, confidence in the forecast for Friday and beyond remains low at this time. Continue to stay tuned for updates to the forecast over the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Low level wind shear will affect central and south central Kansas during the overnight and early morning hours. Meanwhile southerly winds will gradually increase for those same areas with VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Stout/gusty south-southwest winds, low humidity, and above average temperatures will support very high grassland fire danger just about each afternoon through Thursday generally along and west of Highway 14 across central and south-central Kansas. However, marginally lighter winds Tuesday and Thursday afternoons may somewhat limit fire weather concerns across central and south-central Kansas. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&$$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...CDJ FIRE WEATHER...JC/ADK