FXUS63 KGID 221810 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 110 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions possible along/northwest of a Cambridge- Kearney-Fullerton line. A Red Flag Warning is in effect 12- 8pm for those areas. - Southerly winds gusting 30-40mph are expected across the area today, strongest along/west of Highway 183. - Isolated-scattered thunderstorms possible (15-25%) this evening-night west of Highway 183. - Scattered thunderstorms possible (20-60%) along a cold front Thursday afternoon (most likely east of Highway 281). A few of these storms could be strong-severe capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. - More widespread precipitation chances (40-75%) arrive this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Temperatures this morning are currently in the 50s and 60s with southerly winds gusting 20-25mph. Aloft a ridge is moving over the Plains with a trough moving into the Rockies. Southerly flow has helped to transport moisture into the area, with dewpoints in the 50s across central and southeastern portions of the area. A deepening surface low over the Rockies will result in a tightening pressure gradient over the area. As it does so, southerly winds increase across the area today, gusting 30-40mph, strongest along/west of Highway 183 in Nebraska where gusts to 45mph are possible. Highs today will climb into the 80s, warmest across western portions of the area where the greatest mixing and lowest dewpoints are expected. Gusty winds combined in areas that experience the warmest/driest temperatures result in critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect 12-8pm for northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge- Kearney-Fullerton) that are most likely to see relative humidity values of 20% or less. Late this afternoon-evening scattered thunderstorm development is possible along a dryline in western Nebraska/Kansas. Shear and CAPE would be sufficient for these storms to become strong to marginally severe capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. There remains uncertainty as to how far east these storms will make it before dissipating this evening/night. Still, it's plausible that storms reach Dawson/Gosper/Furnas county (outlined in the SPC day 1 marginal risk) before stability increases and storms wane. Further east, a few weak showers/storms are possible during the early morning hours on Thursday, though any accumulation from this looks to be light (0.10" or less). A low over the northern Plains pushes a cold front through the area during the day on Thursday. There remains spread within model guidance as to how far this frontal passage moves through the area. The front will serve as the forcing for thunderstorm development this afternoon. SBCAPE values in excess of 2000J/Kg and shear of 30- 40kts support a threat for golfball sized hail, 60mph wind gusts and an isolated tornado. Three scenarios for thunderstorm development are listed below along with their current likelihood. Scenario 1 (Second most likely. Example model 00z NamNest): By the early-mid afternoon the cold front pushes east of the forecast area. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along the front remain east of the area entirely (no severe threat). Scenario 2 (Most likely. Example model 00z HRRR): Scattered thunderstorms develop on the cold front located along Highway 81. Initial storms will be discrete/supercellular, and capable of producing all hazards. These storms exit eastern portions of the area during the early evening hours. Areas most likely to see storms are currently outlined in SPC day 2 slight risk. Scenario 3 (Lowest chance. Example model 00z RRFS): The cold front is slower, with scattered thunderstorms developing along the cold front located around Highway 281 during the early afternoon. These storms would initially be discrete/supercellular, but develop into a line over time. As storms develop into a line the threat for damaging wind will increase. These storms would exit eastern portions of the area during the mid evening hours. Areas most favored to see storms are currently outlined by the SPC day 2 marginal risk. Outside of the severe storm chances on Thursday, critical fire weather conditions are possible behind the cold front. The highest chances for critical fire weather look to be along/west of Highway 281 where the overlap of low humidity (10-20%) and breezy westerly winds (gusting 20-30mph) is greatest. Fire weather headlines will likely be needed for at least western portions of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Currently through tonight... Dry conditions continue to reign today...with satellite imagery showing plenty of sun across the region. Looking aloft...upper air data shows west-northwesterly flow in place as ridging slides east through the Plains...set up between broad troughing off the East Coast and a larger scale low pressure system moving onto the coast of northern CA/southern OR. At the surface, the first half of the day saw most spots with light/at times variable winds with a weak surface boundary draped across the area. This afternoon, low pressure/troughing over the High Plains is helping to pull that boundary northward...with more ESE to the north ahead of the front, more gusty southerly winds to the south. Temperatures have worked out fairly well, with most in the mid-upper 80s. Do have spots where relative humidity values have dropped to/below 20 percent...but with the winds remaining generally lighter (though there has been an occasional gust near 20 MPH), critical fire weather conditions haven't been an issue. This evening through tonight, no notable changes were made to the dry forecast. Not expecting changes with the surface pattern, we remain east of the main area of sfc low pressure, which will keep winds southerly through the night...speeds around 10-15 MPH, can't rule out some gusts near 20 MPH in spots. The southerly flow will continue to transport better moisture northward, with dewpoints in the 50s spreading across more of the forecast area with time. Overnight lows tonight are mild, dropping into the low-mid 50s (normal lows this time of year are in the mid 30s-low 40s). Wednesday... Overall, models haven't show any notable changes for Wednesday...still looking to be another day of well above normal temps, this time with stronger winds. In the upper levels, flow across the Central Plains is turning more southwesterly as that larger low pressure system moves further inland...becoming more centered over portions of MT by early evening. At the surface, low pressure continues to deepen ahead of this system...with models showing a strengthening dryline extending through western portions of SD-NE-KS. A tightening pressure gradient will bring stronger southerly winds throughout the day...with gusts near 35-40 MPH possible, especially for WNW portions of the area. Forecast calling for similar highs for most locations, well into the 80s for some...little more uncertainty across SSE areas, where there may be more lower level clouds lingering longer into the day than in other spots. After collab with neighboring offices, the main change to the forecast for Wednesday was with the issuance of a Red Flag warning, for areas roughly along/west of a line Genoa-Kearney-Beaver City, NE. There are some uncertainties...mainly with dewpoints and how far they drop with mixing through the day. Forecast is on the lower side of things for dewpoints/relative humidity in that area...have RH values falling into the 17-25 percent range, confidence in winds is higher...that NWrn area has the best potential to reach critical fire weather conditions. Later in the afternoon, this surface dryline off to our west is expected to be the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, some of which could be strong-severe. The big questions for our area lie in the finer details...exactly where does that dryline initially set up/strengthen...and can any activity maintain itself long enough to impact our CWA. The further west that boundary ends up, the lower the chances of impact on us...but there are a few models that inch things further east...thus the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area remaining over our far west. Large hail/damaging winds would be the main threat...and would likely be a short-lived threat. Through the overnight hours...can't rule out some scattered showers and weaker storms passing through the area as that main upper low/trough push further east. Based on some models recent trends, feel that current forecast PoPs are too broad in nature...have 20 percent chances all the way through our KS counties. Some models keep us dry and focus things just off to the north. Thursday... By the time 12Z Thursday rolls around...models aren't in too bad of agreement showing upper level low pressure having moved into eastern portions of Montana...with a SSW extending trough axis int the UT/CO border area. At the surface, models also in good agreement showing the main surface frontal boundary looks to be knocking on the door of our western-most counties. Through the rest of the daytime- evening hours...question number 1 is tied to that surface frontal boundary's progress through the forecast area. There have been and continue to be slight, but important, differences between models (even run to run for some) with the timing of that progress...as we get mid-late afternoon, that front will be the focus of thunderstorm development. Some models remain consistent that at most storms affect roughly the HWY 81 corridor...others have trended more toward/stayed with a earlier (more like early-mid afternoon), further west development (closer to HWY 281). It'll be interesting to see how models trend, now that we'll be getting further into a timeframe where more hi-res models are available. Ahead of the front, could have MUCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg...with deeper layer shear of potentially 30-40 kts. SPC Day 3 Slight Risk remains over portions of the area east of HWY 281. Any initial discrete storms look to form into more of a line fairly quickly...and the main severe threat also looks to make a overall quick exit to the east, even the slowest/western models have us clear by mid-evening. Along with the storm threat, there is also a fire weather threat behind the surface front. Gusty west-northwest winds are expected to accompany the front...along with a drier airmass and increased mixing, dewpoints look to fall into the teens-20s. Forecast relative humidity values below 20 percent have the potential to be fairly widespread...but like the storm chances will depend on the eastward progress of that front. With the expected gusty winds, it's looking likely a fire headline will be needed for Thursday...just a matter of how much of the area will be included. Friday and on... For the end of the week, models continue to show the main area of upper level low pressure shifting into central Canada...keeping some spotty precipitation chances around mainly Friday night into Saturday. As we get into Sunday...another shortwave disturbance that starts the weekend out in CA slides ENE out onto the Plains...and models continue to be on the aggressive side with the potential coverage of precipitation. 12Z ECMWF ensembles showing a roughly 30- 50 percent probability of 1 inch more, mainly near/north of the NE- KS state line...GEFS is lower. Will see how things trend in the coming days...but that would be some very welcome moisture. Spotty precip chances continue into the start of the new work week...not much confidence in things that far out. Following highs in the 70s-low 80s on Thursday...cooler highs are expected through the weekend. Highs Fri-Sun generally range from the low-mid 60s north to low 70s in the south. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility along with precipitation-free conditions the majority of the time. However, there is at least a 6-7 hour period overnight into early Thursday morning that will likely feature MVFR stratus, along with PERHAPS a small chance for a passing shower/thunderstorm. Otherwise, especially during these first 12 hours, moderately- strong winds take center stage, with southerly gusts commonly 30-35KT especially through 05-06Z. Then, a shift to breezy (but lighter) northwest winds takes place late in the period Thursday morning (gusts to around 20KT). - Ceiling/precipitation details: Very high confidence in continued VFR (only some high cirrus) through at least 04-05Z. Thereafter, equally high confidence that an MVFR ceiling arrives (roughly 2K ft. AGL) and sticks around through around 11Z KEAR/12Z KGRI, before it gets scoured out/lifts to VFR behind a passing cold front. Of lower confidence (but possible) is the chance for a few passing showers/non-severe thunderstorms. Should this occur, it would be most favored during the 08-12Z time frame, and have introduced PROB30 groups to cover this. - Wind details: Consistent, moderately-strong southerly winds will prevail throughout the rest of the afternoon-evening (sustained speeds commonly around 25KT/gusts 30-35KT). Very late tonight into early Thursday morning, winds will turn westerly and then northwesterly, with gusts to around 20KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Dewpoints today will range from the mid 50s southeast of the Tri- Cities to the upper 40s northwest of the Tri-Cities. Highs today will be in the 80s, warmest across western portions of the area where dewpoints are the lowest. Windy weather is expected today, with the strongest winds west of Highway 281 (gusts 35-40mph). Afternoon relative humidity values range from the low to mid 30s along/southeast of the Tri-Cities to the teens/20s northeast of the Tri-Cities. Given the overlap of lower humidity and gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are possible across northwestern portions of the area which are under a Red Flag Warning from 12-8pm today. While the area may fall shy of reaching "official" fire weather criteria (RH <= 20%, gusts >= 25mph), the strong winds, warm temperatures and near criteria RH a headline regardless. Additionally gusty winds may result in greater atmospheric mixing and lower RH than currently forecast. A cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, with dewpoints falling into the teens/20s behind the front. Highs in the 70s combined with dewpoints result in afternoon relative humidity values of 10-20%. Breezy-gusty westerly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected behind the front. Given the overlap of breezy winds and low humidity values, an area of critical fire weather conditions is likely behind the front. There remains some uncertainty on how far east the fire threat will extend (uncertainties on the frontal timing/placement), but areas west of Highway 281 are most favored to see critical fire weather conditions (and need a Red Flag Warning). Afternoon relative humidity values of 20-25% are possible across the area on Friday. Winds will be lighter overall, though some gusts over 20mph are possible. An area of near-critical conditions are possible wherever gusts over 20mph occur. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046-047-060-061-072-073-082. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Pfannkuch FIRE WEATHER...Davis