FXUS63 KEAX 252009

AFDEAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

309 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- An isolated non-severe storm is possible this evening across far 

eastern KS into far western Missouri.



- Increasing severe weather threat later in the day on Sunday into 

Sunday night.  All modes of severe weather are possible. 



- Cooler and drier conditions are expected behind a strong cold

  front moving through the region mid-day Monday. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026



Cold front associated with an occluded low pressure center across 

central Canada will continue to slowly push east this afternoon and 

evening. Ahead of the front, a weakly unstable atmosphere exists 

with increasing low level moisture.  There is a fair amount of cloud 

cover across central and eastern KS, but still could see a few 

showers and thunderstorms develop in the vicinity of the cold front 

with 750-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and weak short wave building east. 

CAMs suggest a few of these storms may approach eastern Kansas into 

far western Missouri this evening, though the trend has been to 

shift timing a bit later in the evening. Severe weather is not 

expected with this activity with relatively weak instability.  



Sunday, a developing low pressure system in the central Rockies is 

expected to lead to increasing southerly winds.  As the warm front 

noses into the region, increasing shear and instability is expected. 

0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40 knots west of the warm front 

and  surface based CAPE increases to 1500-2500 J/kg.  Forecast 

soundings suggest there is a bit of a cap near 700 mb, but 25-35 

knot low level jet developing Sunday evening across the plains may 

weaken the cap. Models also suggest a series of short waves moving 

across KS that could assist in the development of convection, but 

are largely focused after 06Z Monday. The left exit region of the 

upper level jet also noses into the region after 06-09Z Monday, 

potentially assisting in lift developing across the region. This all 

said. That there are multiple triggers but no clear indication on 

if/what will get convection going. 



Strong cold front is expected to work through the region mid-day 

Monday, bringing an end to the potential for storms. Cooler and 

drier conditions are expected through much of the remainder of the 

week.





&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026



VFR conditions expected through Satruday afternoon hours with

cumulus deck arount 3K feet developing in central and western

MO. May see an isolated storm creep into western MO this evening

mainly west of subtile warm front lifting into the region.

Increasing low level moisture west of the front could lead to

some MVFR ceilings Sunday morning in the 13-17Z time frame,

before scattering out in the mid-day and afternoon hours.



&&



.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BT

AVIATION...BT