FXUS63 KDDC 180456 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1156 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A light freeze is expected across much of southwest Kansas Saturday and Sunday mornings; a Freeze Warning is in effect Saturday morning for lows down to 25-30 degrees. - After a seasonably cool Saturday, another rapid warming trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday. - Southwest Kansas will remain dry for at least another week, through April 23, bringing continued fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 The deep upper-level through continues to move east across the northern CONUS. The forecasted cold front has swept through most of Kansas and dropped temperatures substantially. Between radiative cooling and continued potent CAA with the strong north winds, temperatures will plummet towards freezing across the CWA. Most of the area is in a Freeze Warning, a couple in a frost advisory, and Barber and Pratt county excluded. The Warning and Advisory starts at 1 AM and lasts until 9 AM CDT. Overnight lows in the northwest counties may drop as low as 22 degrees with most of the CWA ranging from 25-35 degrees. After the cold overnight temperatures, highs Saturday will fight to reach 60 degrees. Despite the cooler highs, relative humidities are still forecast to be very dry with the transport of cold, dry air with the minimums down to 5-15%. Winds will struggle to reach fire weather criteria despite the very dry conditions. Only the far northwest portions, including Scott City to Syracuse, have gusts forecast reaching 20-25 mph. Although the probability of exceeding 25 mph is <40% via ensembles and only for a very short period of time. This will need to be monitored through the overnight and into the morning forecast cycle. The Saturday/Sunday overnight again will flirt with sub-freezing temperatures in the northwestern counties. lows may drop again down to 27 degrees. Sunday continues the very dry stretch just with warmer highs forecast in the 80s. Quiet weather will persist with only fire weather concerns through Thursday will highs in the 80s and even some 90 degree highs via ensembles in the western counties. Sunday to Thursday will see some amount of the CWA at or below 15% through and therefor some fire weather risk with the driest areas consistently in the western counties. The question continues to be whether the driest regions will see winds reach 25 mph. Rapid firing the days with the wind forecasts via ensembles: Sunday is expected to reach criteria west of Highway 83 with gusts of 25-30 mph, Monday will see areas of gusts around 25 mph for the whole area, Tuesday wind gusts are only expected up to 20 mph in the dry areas, Wednesday is forecast to have gusts of 25-35 for the whole area (only the western third counties will be dry enough), and Thursday will again see gusts up to and around 25 mph. Monitor the forecasts for future fire weather headlines. Regardless of if the conditions meet the required criteria, the VERY dry stretch will pose at least an elevated risk. Precautions are strongly advised and ignition sources need to be closely monitored. Ensembles hint at a wave on Wednesday and Saturday, but ensembles keep the probability of precipitation under 20% so impact may be minimal other than decreasing temperatures somewhat. Temporal uncertainty will decrease in future forecasts around these systems. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the TAF period. As high pressure builds into the area, quiet weather is expected. Conditions will be consistent for much of the period with a 10-15 KT north wind and clear/mostly clear skies. Around 19Z, gusts may reach up to 20 KTs. Around 2Z, winds will drop to light and variable for the remainder of the period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030- 031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>088. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ066-080-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...KBJ