FXUS62 KTAE 252331 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 731 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 721 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 - Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday. Best chances for rain will be across Florida into southern Georgia, where Sunday's rain totals are most likely to be in the 0.25-0.50" range. - Patchy to areas of fog are possible across much of the region Sunday morning. - Temperatures will increase after the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid-60s. Pop-up showers and storms will be possible each afternoon next work week Wednesday and beyond. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to make their way east across the area this afternoon. They should peter out not long after sunset as we lose the heating of the day. Another round of fog is expected across much of the region later tonight into Sunday morning. A "cold" front approaches the region from the north. The combination of the front and sea breeze should lead to another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will range from around 60 tonight to the middle 80s Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The cold front crawls into our area Sunday night before eventually stalling somewhere near or just south of I-10. High pressure moving over the northeast and a developing area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline will bring drier northeasterly breezes Monday, pushing rain chances more south and west as a result. Temperatures Monday will range from the lower to middle 80s across southwestern Georgia to the middle to upper 80s across the Florida Big Bend & Panhandle and southeastern Alabama. Nearly zonal H5 flow over the region the rest of the period means we'll have to watch for any subtle shortwaves within the mean flow. These in conjunction with diurnal heating should allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It's worth noting that a lot of this will depend on the ultimate strength of the H5 ridge over Mexico and the position of the H5 trough near the Great Lakes. If the ridge is a bit stronger than forecast, it could send the shortwaves, and ultimate storm track, farther north than currently expected. And if the ridge is a tad weaker or the trough is more south, then the storm track would be more south. Ensemble and cluster analysis shows both of those options having a nearly equal chance of occuring, with a slight edge to the more northern storm track. Considering the ongoing drought and the saying that drought begets drought, this forecaster is more liable to believe the slightly drier solutions at this time range. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 721 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Deteriorating flight categories in fog & low clouds late tonight, with guidance support of increasing confidence in restrictions to IFR/LIFR around sunrise at ECP, TLH, and VLD. Exceptions at both ABY and DHN at this time with brief MVFR possible, but confidence is low, and cannot rule out lower restrictions at these terminals. A cold frontal passage takes place with southwest winds that may be light and variable becoming northwest on Saturday. Included PROB30 for Saturday aftn TSRA potential at ECP, TLH, and VLD. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Light and gentle southwest and westerly winds are expected through Sunday, in response to a weak front brushing by across Alabama and Georgia. East and southeast flow returns Monday night into Tuesday, as high pressure builds again along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. Another front nears the northeastern Gulf next Wednesday, causing winds to turn more westerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and storms are in the forecast again Sunday, with the highest chances across the Florida Districts. Winds will generally be out of the west to northwest Sunday before turning more northeasterly to easterly late Sunday night into Monday afternoon. The exception to that will be along the immediate coast Monday afternoon where a sea breeze attempts to push inland, especially for Gulf, Bay, and Walton Counties. Northeasterly winds Monday will also push drier air into the region with MinRH values dropping to 25 to 35 percent across our Georgia districts and 30 to 40 percent for our Florida and southeastern Alabama districts. High dispersions are forecast across much of the area Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 A couple chances to see some light rainfall amounts over the next week as a few disturbances move across the region. However, with around an inch of rainfall or less expected over the next week, any rainfall would be hydrologically insignificant to improving ongoing drought conditions. Isolated areas within thunderstorms may see higher amounts, widespread thunderstorms are not expected. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 64 86 65 / 50 30 30 10 Panama City 79 68 83 67 / 60 20 20 10 Dothan 81 64 84 64 / 50 20 20 10 Albany 82 64 84 64 / 50 40 20 10 Valdosta 85 63 87 64 / 30 20 30 20 Cross City 85 62 86 63 / 10 10 30 10 Apalachicola 78 68 80 67 / 50 10 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108-112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...LF MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Oliver