FXUS62 KTAE 251340 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 940 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 - Scattered showers and storms are possible throughout the area on today and Sunday. Best chances for rain will be in our Alabama, Georgia and inland Florida Panhandle counties, where weekend rain totals are most likely to be in the 0.25-0.75" range. - Patchy to areas of fog are possible across a large portion of the I-10 corridor this morning. - Temperatures will increase after the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid-60s. Pop-up showers and storms will be possible each afternoon next work week Tuesday and beyond. && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The dense fog this morning is lifting across the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. Partly cloudy skies are expected through the rest of the day. There weren't many changes to the forecast for today. We still expect scattered showers and possible thunderstorms throughout the area this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Fairly tricky mesoscale scenario is in store for us today into tonight. Remnants of an MCS are currently eroding just west of the area across portions of southern Alabama. Current Satellite trends have essentially put the brakes on any forward progression of this cloud cover. Should we get to daytime hours and this cloud deck is completely eroded, or even mostly eroded, we might be able to tap into some diurnal instability as the second MCS, currently over Mississippi, dives southeast. This second MCS may brush across the area, weakening as it moves south and east. The PV vort max associated with this MCS may provide just enough forcing, that when aided with diurnal forcing could spawn several showers and a couple thunderstorms. High res model guidance has had a hard time on a run- to-run basis resolving how convection will play out this afternoon. As much as we need the rain, today's rainfall is largely uncertain as there could also be a scenario where minimal rainfall occurs as subsidence (downward motion) along the edges of the MCS contribute to convective inhibition. Overall, less than an inch of rainfall is expected for places that do end up receiving rain, with the best chances being across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 A backdoor density front looks to advect in lower dew points across the region late Sunday afternoon into Tuesday morning as northeast to easterly flow prevails. Temperatures will remain toasty in the mid to upper 80s. Beyond this weekend mostly zonal flow aloft leads to ripples in the flow, forcing weather across the region. Without large scale subsidence in place these ripples along with diurnal heating will allow for a low to medium chance of seeing daily showers and a couple thunderstorms. Generally looking at Tuesday and beyond, a lull is expected on Monday as brief ridging gets nudged eastward by Tuesday. Daytime highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with some isolated low 90s. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 For early this morning, areas of fog and low ceilings will continue along the I-10 corridor, where LIFR conditions or lower are expected. Any fog and low ceilings will dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise. For this afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region, and the highest probabilitiesare near DHN and ABY. Convection is expected to weaken a couple of hours after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Light and gentle southeast breezes prevail into early Saturday afternoon. A temporary turn to southwest and west flow is expected from Saturday afternoon through Sunday, in response to a weak front brushing by across Alabama and Georgia. East and southeast flow returns Monday night into Tuesday, as high pressure builds again along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. Another front nears the northeastern Gulf next Wednesday, causing winds to turn more westerly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 MinRH values continue to increase and remain generally over 40 percent this weekend. This is thanks to daily afternoon sea breezes and southerly flow increasing low-level moisture. There's a chance for wetting rain across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon as a cluster or two of thunderstorms moves on through. Periods of high dispersions are expected over the weekend across southwestern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. A backdoor cold front slides in from the northeast later Sunday night into Monday. This pulls down drier air over our Georgia districts Monday with MinRH values forecast to drop to between 30 to 40 percent along with breezy easterly winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026 A couple chances to see some light rainfall amounts over the next week as a few disturbances move across the region. However, with around an inch of rainfall or less expected over the next week, any rainfall would be hydrologically insignificant to improving ongoing drought conditions. Isolated areas within thunderstorms may see higher amounts, widespread thunderstorms are not expected. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 65 88 65 / 40 40 40 20 Panama City 79 68 83 66 / 20 40 40 20 Dothan 81 64 85 63 / 40 60 40 20 Albany 82 63 85 62 / 50 70 30 20 Valdosta 85 63 88 63 / 30 40 40 20 Cross City 85 62 85 63 / 0 20 40 20 Apalachicola 78 68 80 67 / 10 30 30 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Oliver