FXUS62 KTAE 201712 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 112 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 - Critical fire weather conditions expected today. Please obey local burn bans as any new fires will have the ability to rapidly spread. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire region. - Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over the open waters of the northeast Gulf through at least this afternoon - Some rain chances return late in the week, but no significant rain is expected at this time. Elevated fire concerns should continue each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Surface high pressure will continue to filter into the region this afternoon and tonight as drier air is advected into the forecast area. The combination of elevated northeasterly flow (10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 or 25 mph) and relative humidity at critical values (15-20%) will lead to critical fire danger today. While the wind component of our forecast might not explicitly meet our Red Flag Warning criteria, especially later this afternoon, these conditions will lead to a dangerous fire weather environment where any new or existing fires will have the ability to rapidly spread. The main component driving these concerns, along with the weather, is the historically dry fuels (as evidenced by record to near-record ERC values) across the area along with fuels and fire behavior advisory intelligence from the National Interagency Fire Center. We urge folks to be extremely cautious to avoid anything that could generate sparks, or generate flames. New fires have been popping up over recent days and they have spread quickly. Additionally please listen to any local burn bans in place. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the next week as several systems traverse over the region in west-northwest flow aloft. Unfortunately, many of these systems will not have much moisture to work with and rain chances remain low through the week. Some rain chances could return by next weekend, but model spread remains fairly high so this remains a low confidence forecast. Until we get rain, elevated fire weather conditions are likely to remain each day. Critical fire concerns do not appear likely through the next few days given the absence of very low humidity and significant winds. However, extreme caution in regards to fire needs to remain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the TAF period, due in large part to building surface high pressure and the continued advection of a very dry air mass. Initially breezy NE winds this afternoon will quickly go light/calm overnight. Winds will again be northeasterly tomorrow afternoon but lighter, increasing to only about 5-7kts by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Northeast winds will remain around advisory levels through the afternoon before slowly subsiding early this evening and into the overnight hours as they become easterly. Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will prevail from Tuesday through Thursday, as high pressure sets up well east of the Georgia coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 The cold front has moved through the region but strong northeasterly winds will remain today. Speeds will be highest this morning and early afternoon before decreasing some into the afternoon and evening. Sustained winds around 10 to 15 mph and frequent 20 to 25 mph gusts are expected. Given record dry fuels, humidity around 15 to 20% (localized areas possibly around 10%), and forecast winds a Red Flag Warning is in effect for southeast Alabama, much of the Florida Panhandle, the Florida Big Bend, and southwest Georgia for today. From Tuesday onwards, the dry air mass will stick around through midweek with moisture slowly increasing beyond Monday. Temperatures will be on a warming trend, and dispersions will be high, but winds will diminish. The fire environment will remain elevated. Rain chances potentially increase late in the week, but the long term forecast remains a low confidence forecast in regards to rain chances at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 No rainfall is expected throughout the work week, ongoing drought will therefore continue or worsen. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 51 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 56 82 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 51 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 50 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 49 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 48 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 61 76 63 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. GA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs