FXUS62 KMFL 242310 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 710 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 707 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms over inland South FL through early this evening. - Elevated risk of rip currents into early this weekend for the Palm Beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Forecast scenario remains fairly persistent with the mid lvl ridge being gradually eroded by moisture intrusion aloft. The main driver of this surge in moisture continues to be an upper lvl shortwave moving over the region, while a deep trough/low complex treks over the E CONUS. This system will send an associated frontal boundary into the SE CONUS by Saturday. Meanwhile, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will flatten a little and push closer to SoFlo through Saturday, resulting in periods of generally light winds or even calm conditions at times each day. The 00Z MFL sounding shows a rather quickly moistening of the air mass, with a moist profile up to 9km, and PWATs surging to around 1.3". NBM continues to respond by slightly increasing max POPs into the 30-40% range by Saturday, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. Estimated QPF values still remain around half an inch, with most showers remaining light to moderate. But an isolated heavy downpour can not be ruled out. The surging moisture will also help in keeping low-mid lvl cloud decks in place today. Temperatures will begin to gradually increase with afternoon highs in the low-mid 80s over east coast and interior areas, and into the mid-upper 80s for Gulf coast areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Ensembles and global solutions show an upper lvl shortwave moving across the area to start the long term, while a weak frontal boundary moves across the SE CONUS during the weekend. Expect some gradual increase in mid lvl moisture and instability, with POPs now increasing into the 25-35% range through Sunday. Meanwhile, ridging over the west Atlantic will remain dominant across SoFlo, with winds relaxing over SoFlo during the weekend. Periods of light or even calm winds are possible, especially on Sunday. The presence of the front over the northern portions of the peninsula will help in shifting winds across SoFlo to a more southerly flow, which combined with daytime heating will favor scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over interior and northern portions of the CWA. For next week, conditions should dry again rather quickly during the first half of the work week as high pressure and drier air establish in the wake of the front. A warming trend will begin during the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s across much of SoFlo. Then by Tuesday, afternoon highs should be hitting the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms over inland South FL through early this evening. Winds becoming light and variable overnight, then become E/SE on Saturday around 10 kts, with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Boating conditions should remain generally benign with a light to moderate east-southeast flow prevailing across the local waters today and through the weekend. Possible isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop, especially during the afternoon hours, as an upper level disturbance moves across the area. && .BEACHES... Issued at 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 A high risk of rip currents remains in place for all Atlantic beaches through this morning, then continuing over Palm Beach county through this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 69 84 70 86 / 20 20 10 20 West Kendall 65 86 66 88 / 20 20 0 10 Opa-Locka 69 85 70 88 / 20 20 10 20 Homestead 69 84 69 86 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 70 82 70 85 / 20 20 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 69 82 70 85 / 20 20 10 20 Pembroke Pines 70 87 71 89 / 20 20 10 20 West Palm Beach 68 83 68 85 / 10 20 10 20 Boca Raton 69 82 71 85 / 20 20 10 20 Naples 67 85 68 85 / 10 20 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...CMF