FXUS62 KKEY 201501 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1101 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable weather conditions are expected today. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. - A late-season cold front will through the Florida Keys this evening and overnight, with the potential for addtional showers and thunderstorms as well as fresh to strong breezes in its wake. - Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to develop across Florida Keys coastal waters late this evening and overnight and continue through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 A mostly uneventful morning for the Florida Keys, as KBYX radar is currently rain-free across the whole area. GOES-19 Visibile Satelitte reveals mostly sunny skies. Temperatures are in the upper 70s with dew points in the upper 60s making for a nice day outside! Across the Reef, northeast winds have slackened to 5 to 10 knots as the Mainland is heating up. Later this afternoon, an approaching late season front will push through the Keys. The front will be paired with a strong high building in overnight. This will result in moderate to fresh breezes in the evening hours and further freshening to become fresh to strong late tonight. Shower activity is limited for the time being but as the mainland starts firing off later this afternoon we could see some spillage into the Upper Keys. The front will bring higher rain and thunder chances tonight as it moves through our area. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required in all of the coastal waters by tonight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 A cold front is steadily marching south across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf waters this morning. It is currently located just north of Lake Okeechobee and is losing steam as it pushes further south. As it approaches, however, we did see a minor wind surge develop along the west coast of Florida that remains ongoing across the western waters. The eastern waters are more sheltered and see less of a response. Conditions remain muggy with current temperatures in the upper 70s and dew points in the upper 60s. As the day progresses and the front moves ever so slowly towards the Keys, we will see rain chances increasing. Given the position and trajectory, shower chances will be highest in the Upper Keys. In addition, given a north to northeast steering flow, we will be watching for thunderstorms to develop across the Mainland and drift across the Florida Bay, Upper Keys, and easternmost Hawk Channel waters. By the late evening the front will fully enter our waters and we expect a brief but wider coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter, expect winds to sharply increase as a strong high pressure quickly fills in behind the front. Windy conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning before gradually easing. Despite the higher chances for showers and thunderstorms, rainfall amounts will be relatively unremarkable. Certainly not enough to help put a true dent in our moderate drought conditions. The front will slide south and settle across the Greater Antilles Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier air will filter back in and rain chances will quickly return to near nil. Thursday we continue to monitor a potent shortwave moving through the Subtropical Jet but there remains some uncertainty if there will be enough moisture to interact with to make this worthwhile for the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required tonight as breezes freshen across all waters. From synopsis, breezes will briefly be light to gentle as the Mainland heats up, but will increase towards the late afternoon due to an approaching front. The front is poised to sweep through the Keys this evening followed by a strong high pressure overnight. Moderate to fresh breezes will develop in the early evening and further freshen to fresh to strong breezes after midnight. Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue through at Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Light to gentle winds will freshen late this afternoon as a late season cold front pushes through the Keys. Thereafter, northeasterly winds will be near 10 knots with frequent gusts of near 20 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest