FXUS62 KCAE 190537

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

137 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated key messages to remove mention of Saturday. Aviation 

discussion updated for 06z TAFs.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1. A cold front brings a low chance for a few showers, 

  increased fire weather concerns, and cooler weather to start 

  the next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1: A cold front brings a low chance for a few 

showers, increased fire weather concerns, and cooler weather to 

start the next week.



Our well advertised cold front is approaching currently, moving

into the upstate as of this writing. Unfortunately, much of the

precipitation weakening as it moves eastward. Guidance continues

to show some isolated showers with this front but as we have

noted over the past few days, this is not a favorable setup for

widespread rainfall. The front should approach and move through

between 9a and 2p today. Behind the front, gusty winds of 20 mph

or more are expected but should only last an hour or two. Much

cooler air is expected behind the front as we get into this week

as cool and dry high pressure overspreads the area. By the

end of the week, temps will again push above normal into the 

mid 80s. We maintain an elevated fire weather risk this week

despite weak winds overall. Min RH values will be near critical

values each day. SC Forestry has implemented a Burn Ban until

further notice so please avoid any burning activities! There

remains a signal for a wetter pattern beginning at the very end

of this period and towards the beginning of May. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions remain through the valid TAF period. 



Cold front will be pushing through the region during the 

morning hours. Regional radars show some showers moving through

the central Appalachians early this morning along the front.

Most guidance indicates these showers will diminish in coverage

and intensity as they move east of the mountains through

sunrise. Thus it looks as if most terminals will continue to be

dry throughout the taf period. Main impacts with clouds

associated with the front will be a period with some broken low

end vfr clouds, then conditions return to more scattered by 

18z. In addition, winds will increase and turn more

west/northwesterly as the front pushes off to the east by late

morning. Sustained winds behind the front will increase to

between 10-15 knots, and wind gusts between 20-25 knots will be

possible at all locations through much of the afternoon, then 

gusts diminish towards 00z with winds dropping to between 5-9

knots after sunset lasting into the overnight hours.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread restrictions expected

through Thursday.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...PL

AVIATION...CAL