FXUS61 KRNK 202355 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 755 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Evening aviation update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Temperatures should plummet below freezing across the entire region tonight. 2. Warmer air returns for the remainder of this week with mainly dry conditions as the next best chance for widespread rainfall may not come until this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures should plummet below freezing across the entire region tonight. The ongoing drought conditions has caused the models to poorly handle the dry air mass in place and not account for wider diurnal ranges in temperatures. With high pressure crossing the Appalachian Mountains later tonight, mainly clear skies and light winds should allow good boundary layer decoupling to occur. As a result, temperatures were pushed downward for tonight, which will warrant temperatures below freezing across the entire region. Consequently, the Freeze Warning was expanded so that the entire RNK coverage area is accounted for the risk of freezing temperatures that could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation. Lows in the mid to upper 20s are expected along and west of the Blue Ridge and also across the Virginia Piedmont, while lows near 30 should occur in the North Carolina Piedmont. Key Message 2: Warmer air returns for the remainder of this week with mainly dry conditions as the next best chance for widespread rainfall may not come until this weekend. After high pressure heads offshore on Tuesday, an upper level ridge will develop over the Appalachian Mountains for the latter half of this week. This synoptic pattern yields a warming trend with temperatures soaring back into the 70s and 80s for Wednesday through Saturday. A weak low pressure system may bring a chance of showers along and north of Route 460 with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the Interstate 64 corridor on Wednesday afternoon. However, the lingering dry air will not offer much opportunity for the moisture to spread southward. Thus, the rest of this week will likely stay dry for many locations, which will only prolong the drought. The next best chance for any widespread rainfall may not come until this weekend when a low pressure system approaches from the Plains. The models indicate some possibility for ongoing rain chances into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Clear skies and VFR flight conditions are across all terminals this evening after a dry cold front has now pushed south of the area. Winds will remain gusty around 15-25 knots for the next couple of hours but will quickly reduce overnight to near calm as high pressure centers overhead. Skies will remain clear, causing temperatures to fall below freezing area-wide. For Tuesday, winds shift back to the south as the front fizzles, but remain much lighter than today, with gusts staying between 10-15 knots. No rain is expected, though some high clouds will move in tomorrow afternoon. VFR will continue through the end of the TAF period. Confidence in the above forecast is high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Tuesday night will be quiet, though some LLWS may impact terminals west of the Blue Ridge. Beyond that, VFR conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the week, outside of a small chance of isolated showers/storms Wednesday afternoon at all terminals but DAN, as a weak front brushes by to our north. The best chance of impacts will be at LWB, with lowering cigs and VSBY possibly bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Outside of this, quiet conditions persist until the next system arrives late Friday into the weekend with likely sub-VFR cigs and more widespread rainfall expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... A fire danger statement remains in effect for the rest of this afternoon across northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Relative humidity values will fall towards 15 to 25 percent for most of the region. Northwest winds will gust towards 15 to 25 mph with the potential for 30 mph gusts along the ridgetops. The rest of this week stays mainly dry with temperatures rising above normal. The ongoing drought will only increase the risk of wildfire potential. Relative humidity values could fall below 30 percent each afternoon for most locations through Friday. Winds should diminish somewhat on Tuesday, but they will increase from the west by Wednesday with possible gusts of 15 to 25 mph before turning lighter by Thursday and Friday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW AVIATION...JCB FIRE WEATHER...PW