FXUS61 KRLX 201702 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 102 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Frost Advisory has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for late tonight into Tuesday morning. Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Freeze Warnings are in effect tonight across the entire area. Protect sensitive vegetation from the cold. 2) Dry weather is expected the next two days. Low afternoon RH values in the 20s and lower 30s and breezy conditions can lead to elevated fire danger. 3) A weak disturbance will bring chances of rain Wednesday. A cold front will bring widespread chances of rain this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Freeze warnings have been issued across the entire area overnight into early Tuesday morning. Clear skies, dry air, low dew points, and light winds overnight will allow for efficient radiational cooling with temperatures dropping into the lower 30s for many places. The typical cold spots and the higher elevations of the West Virginia mountains will drop into the 20s. Take steps to protect sensitive vegetation from the cold. KEY MESSAGE 2... Over the next two days, the combination of low afternoon RH and breezy winds may create elevated fire weather concerns. Today and Tuesday, afternoon relative humidity values will bottom out in the upper 20s and lower 30s across the lowlands and the middle 30s in the mountains. Winds will be breezy over the next several days, occasionally gusting 20-25 mph. An approaching disturbance will increase RH by Wednesday with rain showers approaching the area. Fire weather concerns will dampen by Wednesday for most of West Virginia, except for extreme southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia, where the rain may not reach. Widespread low relative humidity and elevated fire weather concerns may return again Thursday and Friday as dry weather returns. KEY MESSAGE 3... An approaching 500-mb shortwave will bring chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Wednesday. A lack of instability should prevent severe convective development. Another chance of rain will arrive Saturday and potentially lingering through Sunday with an approaching cold front. This rain is certainly much needed. Most of West Virginia is currently categorized in either D0 Abnormally Dry or D1 Moderate Drought according to the latest drought monitor. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the 18Z TAF period. Light Breezy northwest winds during the afternoon (gusting 15-25 kts) will turn calm overnight. Winds will then turn southwesterly Tuesday, occasionally gusting 10-15 kts again during the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR anticipated. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...26