FXUS61 KPBZ 240539 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 139 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for the 06z TAF package. Removed key message for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Friday into Saturday 2) Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances again early next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The stalled surface boundary should return north as a warm front through the day on Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of it. Best coverage appears to be north of Pittsburgh, with the surface boundary providing a source of lift. An isolated shower/storm cannot be totally ruled out in the warm sector, but capping is more likely to the south, limiting potential coverage. Severe risk again appears low, supported by CSU/NCEP machine learning guidance. A shortwave trough, and associated surface low and cold front, are expected to track east across the Upper Ohio Valley region Friday night into Saturday, with showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms expected. The models continue to indicate a faster FROPA overall, taking it east of the ridges Saturday morning. However, a lagging shortwave trough ahead of Middle Ohio Valley ridging could keep some shower activity going at least through the afternoon hours, with activity pulling east by Saturday night. Generally followed NBM PoP suggestions for now, but a faster end to precipitation may be needed if model trends continue. KEY MESSAGE 2... Ridging should return dry weather to the region Sunday into Monday. Model ensembles indicate a shortwave trough and surface cold front returning later Monday into Tuesday, with showers and possible thunderstorms returning to the forecast, with at least some potential for stronger storms. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail on Friday with southwesterly winds near 5-10 kts. Afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along a weak surface front, primarily north of Pittsburgh. Probability for these is too low to warrant mention outside of FKL/DUJ. Another cold front will then bring showers and possible thunderstorms with restrictions late Friday night through early Saturday. Rain should clear early Saturday afternoon, but MVFR cigs may linger into Saturday night. Outlook... VFR conditions are expected to return Sunday and Monday, but additional rain chances and restrictions are anticipated Tuesday with crossing low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM/CL AVIATION...Craven/Rackley