FXUS61 KBUF 241717 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 117 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wet weather returns tonight through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet weather returns tonight through Saturday. A surface low over the upper peninsula of Michigan will slide southeast across central Michigan tonight before passing by on the far southwest edge of New York into the mid-Atlantic region by Saturday. Meanwhile, a warm front draped across central Michigan is supporting a few showers to bubble up along its boundary, which are contributing to the swath of upper level clouds across Western New York towards the Genesee Valley. While rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out this afternoon and evening, severe thunderstorms aren't expected as mid-level lapse rates are marginal, with instability being elevated and limited to marginal shear. A shortwave trough passage tonight, will support the aforementioned surface low to slide southeast tonight and Saturday, increasing moisture, and forcing across far Western New York. Overall, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to track southeast across western New York. A plume of precipitable water values of an inch to an inch and a quarter will slide across the area, and thus will result in showers to be heavy at times. The best corridor for efficient rainfall will lie south of the New York State Thruway from Buffalo to eastern Allegany County. Rainfall amounts across WNY will range from a half inch across the far southwestern Chautauqua County to around an inch to an inch and a half across the corridor from Buffalo to the Genesee Valley, to up to a tenth of an inch across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Within the corridor from Buffalo to Alfred, where the heavier precipitation will lie, area creeks and streams may see some rises as well as some local ponding in poor drainage areas. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Hi-Res guidance suggests the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, along a NW-SE oriented boundary across western New York. The placement of the boundary suggests that if any convection does occur, it will be within a corridor from KIAG-KBUF- KELZ. A wave of low pressure will move along the stationary boundary with conditions deteriorating to IFR/MVFR in rain showers for terminals south of Lake Ontario. LIFR is possible across the higher terrain. It will remain VFR across the North Country (KART) with mid level CIGs possible. IFR/MVFR will continue south of Lake Ontario Saturday in rain showers. CIGs may lower at KART, but chances for any restrictions look to be less than 30 percent. Outlook... Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with scattered rain showers. && .MARINE... Breezy northeast winds are in place across the lakes this afternoon as a tightening pressure gradient is overhead between exiting high pressure and surface low pressure passing southeast across the Upper peninsula of Michigan. Winds will continue to increase this evening through Saturday, supporting small craft conditions. Weak high pressure will build across the lakes Sunday, supporting winds to diminish back down to below small craft criteria. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAJ AVIATION...TMA MARINE...EAJ