FXUS61 KAKQ 181901 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 301 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. Temperatures have trended a bit colder both Sunday night and Monday night, but otherwise no major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably hot (inland) this afternoon with cooler weather along the immediate coast and across the Eastern Shore. 2) A cold front crosses the area Sunday morning bringing light rain showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns are possible on Monday. 3) Patchy frost and/or a light freeze are looking increasingly likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably hot (inland) this afternoon with cooler weather along the immediate coast and across the Eastern Shore. As of 2 PM this afternoon, a backdoor cold front is located over northeastern portions of the forecast area. Cooler, onshore flow has developed in the wake of the front, with the coldest temperatures (50s and 60s) across the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Lower clouds and patchy fog have also developed along the immediate coast from the MD/DE border down to Wallops Island, VA. Inland, temperatures remain similar to the past few days with readings ranging from the mid 80s to around 90. Remaining dry tonight, but cloud cover will increase as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Very mild tonight with temperatures likely staying in the 60s or 70s through sunrise as a SW winds picks up ahead of the front. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the area Sunday morning bringing light rain showers and much cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns are possible on Monday. A strong cold front moves through the area from NW to SE during the morning hours. In the wake of the front, NW winds will gust to 25 to 30 mph (potentially a few gusts of 35+ mph). Temperatures will rapidly drop 15 to 20 degrees with the frontal passage, from the 60s to lower 70s back into the 50s. Temperatures will try to recover across the western half of the area (upper 50s to lower 60s) in the late afternoon as we get some clearing. As for rain chances tomorrow, still expecting a decent coverage of light rain showers from morning into the early to mid afternoon. Unfortunately, showers are expected to remain light with total QPF only averaging ~0.10" to 0.20" (highest NW, lowest east). A much cooler and drier airmass will move into place behind the passing cold front Sunday night into early Monday. Lows inland Sunday night will drop into the upper 30s to around 40, with perhaps some mid 30s. A secondary cold front drops through the area Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Will note that some of the high-res guidance does show a few showers along this front Monday, but forecast soundings appear to dry for a majority of this to make it to the surface. Much drier air filters in behind this front, with RH values falling to 20-25% with perhaps some RH values in the upper teens. In addition, breezy conditions are expected and winds could gust to 20 to 25mph. Monday will be another day we will need to watch closely for fire weather concerns, especially if we get less rainfall on Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Patchy frost and/or a light freeze are looking increasingly likely for Tuesday morning. A warming trend then begins mid to late week. Strong high pressure builds NW of the are Monday, eventually settling over the area Monday night into Tuesday. A light freeze (30- 32F) is becoming increasingly likely for inland locations, especially over our NW Piedmont. Latest NBM probs depict ~30 to 50% chances for temperatures of 32F or less Tuesday morning roughly inland/NW of US-360 and ~20 to 30% for 30F or less across far northwestern Louisa County. Freeze Watches may be needed on a future shift for our NW Piedmont for Tuesday AM. Elsewhere (away from the immediate coast) temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s leading to at least the potential for frost formation. A very dry airmass may help to keep the frost from becoming too widespread. By Tuesday afternoon, high pressure will eventually move back off the SE coast and temperatures will begin to increase (though still remaining below average, especially on the coast and the Eastern Shore). By the middle and through the end of next week temperatures will return into the 70s and 80s. However, another front may try to drop south across the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing at least the chance for a few showers and potentially falling temperatures due to onshore flow. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... Generally VFR/dry conditions across the region this afternoon with the lone exception being in the vicinity of SBY where there is IFR stratus. Winds are easterly (~10 knots) along the coast and S to SW (5 to 10 knots) inland. IFR stratus will drift closer to SBY throughout this afternoon, eventually reaching the airport ~20-21z and lingering into the early overnight hours. A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the area Sunday morning. Clouds increase ahead of the front tonight and winds become gusty out of the SW. The approaching front and increasing SW winds should help to return SBY to VFR conditions after 03z. The front crosses the area between ~10 to 14z, with light rain showers along and behind the front. CIGs may approach MVFR and linger around MVFR into the afternoon. Winds become gusty out of the N to NW with gusts of 20-25+ knots possible. Outlook: Showers and lower CIGs dissipate Sunday afternoon, with conditions returning Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty NW winds are anticipated Monday afternoon. Another front may drop south across the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing at least a low-end chance for rain showers and increasing cloud cover. && .MARINE... As of 325 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through today. - Solid SCA conditions expected Sunday ahead of and behind a strong cold front with a brief period of gale force gusts immediately behind the front. A weak backdoor cold front is encroaching from the N early this morning as high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes nudges SSW along the coast. The wind is light and locally variable. Seas are 1- 2ft nearshore and 2-3ft offshore, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The weak backdoor cold front slides down the coast this morning allowing the wind to become E 5-10kt (~10kt off the MD coast). This boundary lifts back to the N later this aftn and evening with the wind becoming SE 10-15kt, and then S 10-15kt by the evening. Seas remain 2-3ft through this evening, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay building to 2-3ft late this aftn into this evening. A strong cold front approaches from the NW late tonight and crosses the coast Sunday morning into early Sunday aftn. A SW wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt in advance of the front and then shift to NNW behind the front. 00z/18 NAM/GFS each continue to depict sharp pressure rises of 5-7mb/3hr in the immediate wake of the cold front with 950mb wind speeds of 35-40kt. Local wind probs continue to shows a 50-70% chc of 34kt gusts, primarily for the Ches. Bay and coastal/offshore waters S of Parramore Is. However, the duration is short and generally 2hr or less. Therefore, SCAs have been issued for the frontal passage and any gale force gusts immediately behind the front can be handles with SMWs. SCAs for the Ches. Bay begin at 1AM tonight and 4AM early Sunday morning for the lower James to account for increasing S then SW flow ahead of the front and then for the NNW surge behind the front. The remainder of the marine zones (aside from the offshore waters) have SCAs beginning at 7AM and 10AM for the post-frontal NNW surge. The pressure gradient slackens quickly later Sunday aftn and evening with SCAs ending during this time. Seas build to 4-5ft in the coastal waters and 5-6ft in the offshore waters/southern coastal waters, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind becomes W 5-15kt Sunday night, and then NW 10-15kt Monday. A secondary cold front crosses the coast later Monday aftn, with a subsequent northerly surge following for Monday night. At this time the Ches. Bay has the best potential for additional SCA flags by Monday night. High pressure passes across the region Tuesday and settles offshore by the middle of next week with sub-SCA conditions expected. 3-4ft seas early next week should subside to 2-3ft by the middle of the week, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay subsiding to 1- 2ft. && .CLIMATE... While RIC may approach 90F on Saturday, no additional records are expected with the record being 95. It will be much cooler closer to the coast, and nowhere near records. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ639. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ656- 658. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/HET AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJZ/RHR CLIMATE...LKB