FXAK68 PAFC 230026 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 426 PM AKDT Wed Apr 22 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Saturday)... Key Points: * Unseasonably wet and windy weather remains on track for Tonight through Friday night. * The wettest weather will be the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and the Susitna Valley with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected for most communities. Whittier, Portage and Cordova could see 4 inches or more of rain. * A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the Susitna Valley from 9pm this evening through Saturday morning. Rain and snowmelt combined with still frozen surfaces could make it hard for all of the water to find a place to properly drain. As a result, there could be minor flooding of low-lying roads and properties. * Strong and gusty southeasterly gap winds will develop this afternoon and evening and persist through at least Thursday. Locations that will see some of the strongest winds include Turnagain Arm, Anchorage Hillside, south to west Anchorage, Palmer and the Knik River Valley, and Glennallen and the Copper River. There will be some fluctuations in the strength of these winds and which gaps are blowing at any given time - but there will be additional periods of strong wind through Saturday. A high amplitude pattern is in place over Alaska, with a trough in the Bering Sea/North Pacific and a ridge extending from the northeast Pacific to mainland Alaska. The trough is anchored by a deep vertically stacked low in the southern Bering Sea, with a surface front wrapped around the low center, up across the north-central, then southward across Southwest AK. A sharp short- wave is lifting northward across Southwest AK, pushing the ridge axis over mainland AK eastward toward Canada. Rain and stronger winds are beginning to overspread Kodiak Island and Southcentral AK ahead of both the upper short-wave and surface front. The forecast is on track for tonight through Thursday night, with little to no change. The large scale pattern will be stable, with a high amplitude ridge over the eastern Gulf up into Canada, a high amplitude trough in the Bering, and deep moist southerly flow in between affecting Kodiak and Southcentral. A series of short- waves will track from south to north across Southcentral, enhancing both winds and precipitation as they move through. Coastal areas of the south and eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound as well as the northern to western Susitna Valley will see the brunt of rainfall, with multiple inches over the next few days. While precipitation totals are not all that impressive for these areas, it is rare to see this pattern and these totals in April which is typically one of the driest months of the year. Snow levels will remain relatively low (3000 feet or lower) which will minimize mountain snow melt. As a result, flooding potential is relatively low. The best potential is in the Susitna Valley, where there is a deeper snowpack and more frozen ground. This could cause localized flowing in low-lying areas as water from rain and snowmelt struggles to find places to drain. The one big change to the forecast is from Friday through Friday night, as all model guidance has now locked on to a strong negatively tilted short-wave and surface low lifting northward across the western Gulf/Kodiak and into Southcentral. With a deeper layer of low-level southeasterly flow ahead of this, expect another round of moderate precipitation for the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Susitna Valley. The upper flow will shift on Saturday, becoming less amplified as a new storm tracks into the Bering Sea and a ridge begins to build ahead of it. Thus, expect both wind and precipitation to diminish across Southcentral and the Gulf/Kodiak Island on Saturday. -SEB && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday)... Active and stormy weather continues through Thursday afternoon as the region remains under the influence of a Bering Sea low. The front that brought widespread snow and freezing rain across the Kuskokwim Delta continues to push inland with rain continuing across interior Southwest Alaska communities through this evening. The vertically stacked low continues to track northward across the central Bering just west of a line from Adak to Saint Paul. Shower activity and sustained winds to gale force will shift west to east along the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and the Pribilofs through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Along the Southwest Alaska coast, expect another round of light rain or rain/snow mix and gusty southerly winds Thursday morning as the low continues north and weakens. Expect quieter, but still unsettled, weather from Thursday afternoon into Saturday across Southwest Alaska as weaker upper level shortwaves rotate through the region and bring periods of showers. By Friday evening, a strengthening North Pacific low begins its entrance into the Bering Sea, bringing the next round of strong winds and moderate to heavy precipitation. While the track of this low remains uncertain, confidence continues to increase in the possibility of widespread storm-force winds and the potential for hurricane-force gusts along the Aleutian Chain for Saturday as the system likely reaches its peak intensity. -JH && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... Unsettled weather continues across much of Alaska into early next week as a North Pacific low moves into the southern Bering near Adak Sunday morning. This system tracks northward, moving to northwest of the Pribilof Islands Monday and stalling as it occludes. Some places in the central Aleutians may see storm force winds Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, widespread gale- force winds are anticipated across the Aleutians, much of the Bering, and Bristol Bay Sunday through Tuesday. Coastal impacts look minimal for now, thanks to both shorefast ice and an extensive icepack over the eastern Bering. A front tied to this system will push into the AkPen and Southwest Alaska Sunday morning, the western Gulf and Kodiak Island Sunday afternoon, then to Southcentral late Sunday night. This will tap into a steady stream of moisture. Widespread precipitation is anticipated across southern Alaska as the front moves through. Kodiak Island, coastal areas along the northern Gulf, and higher terrain of the Alaska Range will see the heaviest precipitation due to upsloping from southeasterly flow. Likewise, this southeasterly flow will promote downsloping for the western Chugach and Kenai Mountains, as well as the Bering side of the AkPen which could limit precipitation in those areas. As the main low weakens and occludes in the northern Bering, more shortwaves look to rotate around the low and move northward from the Pacific into southcentral Alaska. Most models agree on one moving into southcentral Monday night into Tuesday. Maintained southeasterly winds will favor heavier precip along the northern Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island. After Tuesday morning, models diverge on both the timing and positioning of future shortwaves. Some show shortwaves moving over the AkPen and southwest Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday while others show shortwaves moving over southcentral Wednesday into Thursday. Details about midweek shortwaves will become more clear in the coming days, especially after the current low in the Bering and the low in the Bering early next week occlude and weaken. Nonetheless, this setup favors a steady feed of moisture, particularly for southcentral Alaska. PA && .AVIATION... PANC...Southeast winds will remain gusty through the TAF period with some higher gusts of 25 to 35 kts as the Turnagain Arm winds occasionally turn more toward the terminal. VFR conditions are expected to persist, with brief dips into MVFR with any passing rain showers. && $$