FXAK68 PAFC 181353

AFDAFC



Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

553 AM AKDT Sat Apr 18 2026



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:

Today through Monday night)...



The upper level trough is finally moving across Southcentral

this morning, and has been the main source of the lingering rain 

and snow showers across the upper Cook Inlet Region and Mat-Su 

Valley area overnight. 



Today will be a break in between systems as stormier weather will

move back into Southcentral by Sunday morning. What has changed

since yesterday is that this next system looks to be warmer and 

wetter than previously expected. Therefore the lower elevations 

from the southern Susitna Valley southward (including Palmer,

Wasilla, Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula) are expected to have

the precipitation type be all rain for late tonight into 

tomorrow. From Talkeetna northward, the precipitation type will 

likely be snow. Areas along the Alaska Range will see the snow 

persist into Monday



Part of the reason the precipitation type is expected to remain

rain for Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley, will be that there

will be southeasterly surface winds developing which will keep

temperatures above freezing. For Anchorage, the Turnagain Arm

winds are expected to increase early Sunday morning and move over

town which might make the winds on Sunday more of an issue than

the rainfall. 



Yet another short wave will then move over Southcentral late

Sunday night into Monday. This one will have a little more cold

air aloft with it than the one for Saturday night and Sunday.

therefore, there is more of a chance for a rain and snow mix

Sunday night into Monday morning as this unseasonably wet pattern

persists. 



&&





.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 

1 through 3)...



The previously advertised strong North Pacific low has pushed 

into the Bering, causing gusty winds in the Shemya and Adak and 

Atka areas. Shemya is receiving the strongest winds, with gusts 

between 60 and 70 mph. The low is pushing a large front into the 

Eastern Aleutians (Unalaska, Nikolski), the Pribilof Islands, and 

the Alaska Peninsula region. Some notable changes in the forecast 

is a warmer air mass associated with the front. This is causing 

precipitation to become mixed instead of strictly snowfall, 

meaning that blowing snow potential has decreased. As the front 

pushes inland by the early afternoon, some areas of blowing snow 

are possible for the Kuskokwim Delta and especially Nunivak 

Island, but this will be for a short period and will not be 

significant. Temperatures will rise above freezing in the 

Southwest Mainland by the mid afternoon, ending blowing snow 

potential as precipitation becomes mixed. Snow accumulations in 

the mainland have also been considerably reduced. Due to these 

realities, the Winter Storm Warning for the Kuskokwim Delta and 

the Winter Weather Advisory for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley have 

been canceled.



The low will slowly move eastward through the weekend, slowly 

weakening, but allowing for more gusty winds and mixed 

precipitation in the Bering and Southwest Mainland. The low will 

dissipate by Monday and winds will decrease in response. Another 

notable change in this forecast is that temperatures will not drop

as much for the Southwest Mainland for early next week. This is 

because a large low is tracking into the Bering by Monday, which 

is preventing the Arctic trough up north from dropping as much. A 

cool down is still expected, but low temperatures will only drop 

into the 20s and maybe teens in the northern areas of the 

Kuskokwim Delta.



-JAR



&&





.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through 

Friday)...



A shift toward cooler and more unsettled weather is expected

across much of Alaska through the upcoming week. A pattern dropping

in from the north will bring colder air along with periods of 

snow showers across the interior and Alaska Range. 



Meanwhile, a weakening but still impactful storm over the southern

Bering sea will continue to create hazardous marine conditions,

including gusty winds and steady precipitation across the

Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska. 



By early to mid next week, attention turns to Southcentral and

Southeast Alaska as a developing system pulls in a deep surge of

moisture. This will likely bring several days of rain and snow,

with heavier snow totals possible across the Alaska Range and

through higher elevation passes, along with increasing winds. 



There is also a strong North Pacific low being monitored. While

current projections keep it south of the state, any northward

shift toward the Gulf of Alaska could lead to another round of

impactful weather late next week. 



LM





&&

 

.AVIATION...



PANC...Scattered rain and snow showers will taper off later this

morning. Ceilings, in particular, will be slow to lift even after

the precipitation ends so expect mainly MVFR ceilings with occasional

IFR conditions this morning. Ceilings will lift to VFR by this

afternoon. Winds will then become the biggest issue late Saturday

night as Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will move over the

airport in conjunction with an approaching front. However, these 

southeasterly winds will also keep temperatures above freezing so 

the precipitation Saturday night into Sunday should be all rain. 



&&



$$