FNUS73 KMKX 191217

FWSMKX



Spot Forecast for Pheasant Branch...Dane County Parks

National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI

717 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 19. 



Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become 

unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.



.DISCUSSION...



A ~30% chance for some snow flurries / light snow or rain showers

to push in from the northwest through the morning hours (only a

trace of precip if applicable). Dry air is evaporating most of

what we see on radar before it reaches the ground. Broken cloud 

cover should linger through the morning and early afternoon, 

scattering apart into the afternoon and clearing by evening. 



A cold front should arrive at the burn site around ignition time

(9 AM CDT), shifting winds from southwest to northwest. Winds

gradually accelerate behind the front to 10-15 MPH, with a few

gusts to around 25 mph. A few stronger gusts (closer to 30 MPH)

cannot be ruled out this afternoon. 



Very high mixing heights expected behind the front (over 7,000 ft)

working with the NW transport winds to provide excellent smoke

dispersal. Daily minimum RH around 34% expected this afternoon,

wouldn't be surprised to see values as low as 25% though given the

deep mixing heights and approaching high pressure system. 



.REST OF TODAY...



Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of 

                    snow showers or flurries late in the morning, 

                    then chance of sprinkles late in the morning. 

Temperature.........37 at ignition...Max 47. 

RH..................61 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent. 

Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 7 mph at 

                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 7 to 12 

                    mph. Gusts up to 25 mph late in the morning

                    and onwards. Gusts up to 30 mph cannot be ruled

                    out this afternoon. 

Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7200 ft 

                    AGL. 

Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph. 

Smoke dispersal.....Good /45400 knot-ft/ at ignition. 

                    Max...excellent /120300 knot-ft/ increasing to 

                    excellent (145900 knot-ft) late in the 

                    afternoon. 



TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 

Sky (%).........79  75  71  64  56  48  40  38  36  

Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC                 

Weather type....SW  SW  RW  RW  RW                  

Tstm cov........                                    

Temp............37  39  41  43  44  45  47  47  47  

RH..............61  59  55  49  45  41  38  37  35  

20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  

20 FT wind spd..7   8   10  11  11  11  11  11  10  

20 FT wind gust.13  14  16  17  18  18  18  18  17  

Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.6 4.3 5.3 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.0 

Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  

Transp wind spd.21  21  20  21  22  24  25  25  24  

SDspl kt-ft/100045  64  73  96  120 146 160 159 147 



$$

Forecaster...BS

Requested by...Lars Higdon

Type of request...PRESCRIBED

.TAG 2610713.0/MKX

.DELDT 04/19/26

.FormatterVersion 2.0.0

.EMAIL higdon.lars@danecounty.gov