FNUS22 KWNS 190704

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0204 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026



Valid 201200Z - 211200Z



...Synopsis...

Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts

of the High Plains and the Southeast on Monday. Upper-level ridging

will gradually shift east from the Rockies into the Plains through

the day. While surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast

states, a lee trough will deepen along the northern High Plains,

resulting in areas of breezy conditions over dry fuels. 



...High Plains...

A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will support

strengthening west/southwest winds to the west of the trough axis

across eastern WY into western NE. Further south, a tightening

pressure gradient in proximity to a lingering surface high over

eastern TX will promote strengthening winds across the OK/TX

Panhandle region. Within both regimes, ensemble guidance suggests

sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely. RH minimums in the

teens are likely across WY into NE where downslope wind will depress

moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Further south,

the northern fringe of returning moisture will begin nosing into

western TX. This may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH

minimums will likely fall into at least the low 20s given model

guidance tendency to display a moist bias at the surface within the

early stages of moisture return.



...Southeast...

A dry air mass will reside across much of the Southeast where fuels

will likely remain dry owing to limited rainfall forecast over the

next 24-48 hours for much of the region. In general, gradient winds

will weaken through the day as surface high pressure builds across

the region. However, areas of breezy conditions will likely persist

in the lee of the southern Appalachians and along the northeastern

Gulf coast. Sustained winds near 15 mph within a dry air mass (RH

minimums in the teens to twenties) will likely support another day

of elevated fire weather conditions.



...New Mexico to eastern Arizona...

Low to mid-level moisture return is anticipated across southern TX

and into central NM through Monday afternoon. Although forcing for

ascent will be modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of

localized orographic ascent and deeply mixed boundary-layers with

minimal inhibition will support isolated thunderstorm development.

Storm motions around 10 knots will likely support pockets of wetting

precipitation, but PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.7 inches will likely

support dry lightning strikes outside of the heavier precipitation

cores. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile,

lightning ignitions appear possible.



..Moore.. 04/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$