ACUS11 KWNS 252155

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 252154 

KSZ000-260000-



Mesoscale Discussion 0530

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0454 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026



Areas affected...Central Kansas



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143...



Valid 252154Z - 260000Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143

continues.



SUMMARY...The potential for very large (2 inch) hail is likely

increasing across parts of central Kansas.



DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery shows steady intensification of a pair

of supercells to the west of the Great Bend, KS area, and regional

radar also depict gradually strengthening mesocyclones. These cells

are generally propagating to the east/southeast towards a plume of

richer low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s)

where MLCAPE values generally increase from around 1000 J/kg to

closer to 1500-2000 J/kg. Consequently, the recent intensification

trend will likely continue over the next couple of hours as these

cells migrate east/southeast. Given a nearly zonal wind profile

aloft with ample speed shear (nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km BWD sampled

by the KICT VWP), splitting supercells are probable, and will likely

feature severe hail. Based on the downstream convective environment,

recent hail reports (observed hail reports have been trending

upwards from 1 to 1.5 inches), and SARS sounding analogs, hail may

be as large as 2 inches with the stronger storms as they migrate

towards the plume of richer low-level moisture.



..Moore.. 04/25/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...



LAT...LON   38159968 38429970 38629957 38759929 38839806 38689781

            38509771 38209769 37839784 37559824 37439879 37569937

            38159968 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN