ACUS11 KWNS 242302

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 242301 

NEZ000-COZ000-250100-



Mesoscale Discussion 0522

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0601 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026



Areas affected...Portions of western Nebraska



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 242301Z - 250100Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may be capable of producing

sporadic strong to severe downburst winds over the next couple of

hours.



DISCUSSION...Latest lightning data shows a recent uptick in activity

associated with a cluster of weak/shallow convection over parts of

western NE. This is likely attributable to convection beginning to

impinge upon a narrow plume of very modest low-level moisture

(dewpoints in the low 30s), which is supporting around 250 to

perhaps 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Additional thunderstorm development appears

possible over the next couple of hours as this cluster of shallow

convection drifts east across the buoyancy axis. Dewpoint

depressions on the order of 30-35 F (which hint at deep

boundary-layer mixing) coupled with modest effective bulk shear

(30-35 knots) may support strong to severe downburst winds to the

west of the Highway 83 corridor. Given the meager and narrow plume

of the effective warm sector and coming onset of nocturnal cooling,

any severe threat is expected to remain fairly localized and

relatively short-lived.



..Moore/Leitman.. 04/24/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...



LAT...LON   41610216 41980205 42330167 42450111 42340061 42060041

            41460027 40890040 40480090 40420136 40490181 40570192

            40780211 41280220 41610216 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN