ACUS11 KWNS 171602

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 171601 

WIZ000-ILZ000-171800-



Mesoscale Discussion 0747

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1101 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026



Areas affected...southern Wisconsin



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 171601Z - 171800Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce small hail and

locally strong wind gusts through early afternoon. A severe

thunderstorm watch is not currently expected.



DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern WI

this morning near a remnant MCV from overnight convection. This

feature will continue to shift east/northeast into the afternoon.

Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary boundary/warm front is located near

the IL/WI border. Current convection remains north of this boundary

within the cooler, more stable low-level environment. Nevertheless,

modest moisture and enhanced vertical shear near the MCV is

supporting weak MUCAPE and enough flow for organized updrafts.

Midlevel lapse rates are weak across the region, though may steepen

modestly into the afternoon. Given favorable deep layer shear and

stronger midlevel flow, isolated strong gusts are possible in

addition to small hail.



..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...



LAT...LON   43199038 43868964 44058894 44008810 43168802 42548892

            42478951 42638996 42899032 43199038 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN