ACUS11 KWNS 162142

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 162142 

MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-170015-



Mesoscale Discussion 0738

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0442 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026



Areas affected...much of central into southeast Nebraska and

northern Kansas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 



Valid 162142Z - 170015Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent



SUMMARY...Storms are expected to become more numerous through this

evening, with areas of damaging hail and wind expected.



DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front extends from southern IA

across southern NE and into northeast KS, with scattered convection

along the length of it. Surface winds are easterly within this zone,

with 35-40 kt midlevel southwest flow aloft. The result is around 50

kt deep layer shear. 



Meanwhile, daytime heating as well as moisture advection/boundary

layer deepening has led to moderate instability. Forecast soundings

still show steep lapse rates aloft despite subtle height rises, and

this should foster a few storms with very large hail. A damaging

wind threat may develop over time as storms ride along the boundary.



Storms may form into northeast KS which is south of the boundary.

Here, visible imagery shows substantial CU developing with the moist

axis where dewpoints are in the mid 60s F. The modified 18Z TOP

soundings shows an uncapped air mass. Shear is not as strong with

southward extend, but sufficient for at least short-lived severe

hail or wind.



..Jewell/Smith.. 05/16/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...



LAT...LON   40699572 40229559 39699562 39259581 39139633 39139707

            39239787 39499882 39589959 40009964 39990017 40330018

            40479999 40709999 40700024 41760023 41699754 41549629

            41049589 40699572 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN