ACUS11 KWNS 162020

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 162020 

MOZ000-IAZ000-162145-



Mesoscale Discussion 0737

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0320 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026



Areas affected...Northern Missouri and southwest Iowa



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 162020Z - 162145Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is becoming more probable along a

residual outflow boundary in Missouri and along a stalled front in

Iowa.  A watch may be needed by 21-22z.



DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery reveals a gradual

increase/deepening of cumulus along a residual outflow boundary in

northern MO, along a stalled front in IA, and in the open warm

sector into northeast KS.  Farther east, slightly elevated

convection has shown recent signs of intensification to the cool

side of the outflow across north central MO.  Continued surface

heating along and south-through-west of these boundaries will

continue to weaken inhibition (relatively weak MLCIN modifying the

18z TOP sounding for 90/64 F), and thunderstorm development will

become more probable.  The backed low-level flow to the immediate

cool side of the boundaries will augment vertical shear and support

supercells capable of producing very large hail, wind damage, and a

couple of tornadoes.



..Thompson/Mosier.. 05/16/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...



LAT...LON   40079295 39759276 39339291 39239323 39509384 40069453

            40339500 40439552 40729569 40989553 41229457 41169408

            41039375 40449327 40079295 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN