ACUS11 KWNS 142040

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 142039 

NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-142245-



Mesoscale Discussion 0719

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0339 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026



Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 142039Z - 142245Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may bring a risk for strong to

severe wind gusts this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is not

expected at this time.



DISCUSSION...Increasing mid-level ascent ahead of an approaching

subtle, mid-level shortwave trough and continued surface heating are

contributing to weak buoyancy of 250 to locally 500 J/kg MLCAPE

across portions of the central High/Great Plains. This is supporting

the development of isolated, high-based thunderstorms along a

surface cold front across portions of northeastern Colorado.

Expectation is for these developing storms to progress

east-southeastward over the next few hours. With deep, well-mixed

boundary layers and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles noted across

the region (0-3 km lapse rates of 9+ C/km and LCLs of 3-4 km per

latest mesoanalysis), isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be

possible with these thunderstorms. Modestly stronger effective shear

across this region (around 30-35 kts) may also promote some

potential for isolated, marginally-severe hail with any more robust

cores. Given the expectation for thunderstorm coverage to remain

isolated, however, watch issuance is not expected.



..Chalmers/Guyer.. 05/14/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...



LAT...LON   39600316 39990314 40390297 40870222 41630110 41990057

            42100003 41939950 41559915 41219902 40699909 40229934

            39839966 39280027 38980078 38820119 38740160 38720231

            38900281 39260309 39600316 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN