ACUS11 KWNS 061728

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 061728 

OKZ000-TXZ000-061900-



Mesoscale Discussion 1000

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026



Areas affected...portions of central and northwest Texas into

south-central Oklahoma



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 061728Z - 061900Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for isolated

damaging downburst winds and large hail through this evening. A

brief landspout may also be possible.



DISCUSSION...A cluster of ongoing thunderstorms west/northwest of

Abilene has recently exhibited an uptick in lightning activity, with

MRMS and other MESH estimates ranging from 0.5-1" with a marginal

supercell located along the leading edge of this cluster as of 1700

UTC. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the

afternoon across portions of central/northwest Texas into southern

Oklahoma. Continued diurnal heating of this moist low-level air mass

(as sampled by the 12z FWD/OUN observed soundings) is expected to

support continued destabilization throughout the afternoon, with

1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE expected by peak heating. While deep-layer

flow remains modest at best, marginally stronger

southerly/southwesterly flow downstream of a mid-level closed

low/MCV located over the Texas Panhandle is contributing to around

25-30 (locally up to 35) kts of effective bulk shear, sufficient for

marginal updraft organization. 



PWAT values in excess of 1.5-1.6" (up to 1.9" sampled by the 12 FWD

sounding) and a modest steepening of low-level lapse rates (owing to

diurnal heating) will promote the potential for water loaded

downbursts, especially with any more organized clusters that can

develop. Marginal supercells will also be possible. While generally

weak mid-level lapse rates should largely temper the overall hail

threat, isolated large hail may accompany the most robust updrafts.

Finally, a brief landspout cannot be ruled out should a stronger

low-level updraft interact with enhanced surface vertical vorticity

along a surface/outflow boundary. Given the expectation for storm

organization and severe risk to remain limited in magnitude, watch

issuance is unlikely.



..Chalmers/Thompson.. 06/06/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...



LAT...LON   31890113 32570108 33160086 33730052 34140007 34369957

            34579890 34709786 34559724 34279684 33889660 33469649

            33079651 32419689 31979749 30969895 30659929 30559962

            30579997 30760042 31130087 31890113 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN