ACUS11 KWNS 061703

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 061703 

PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-061830-



Mesoscale Discussion 0999

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1203 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026



Areas affected...western/central Pennsylvania...northern/western

Maryland



Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 



Valid 061703Z - 061830Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds will

increase in coverage through the afternoon.



DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe thunderstorms continues eastward

this afternoon across Ohio, producing gusts as high as 66 mph.

Further to the northeast, additional thunderstorms are developing

across portions of western PA into southwestern NY. Ahead of this

activity, filtered heating has allowed temperatures to climb into

the 80s with gradual eastward expansion of around 500 J/kg of

MLCAPE. As further heating occurs, guidance suggests around

1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place through the afternoon with

strengthening mid-level flow aloft overspreading the region and

steepening low level lapse rates. This will promote further

thunderstorm development and potential for downward mixing of higher

momentum air and damaging wind potential. A watch will be needed to

cover this potential soon.



..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/06/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...



LAT...LON   42017891 42137816 41787699 41537643 40837628 40127633

            39547676 39537742 39497804 39607883 40647926 42017891 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN