ACUS11 KWNS 042012

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 042012 

MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-042145-



Mesoscale Discussion 0980

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0312 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026



Areas affected...eastern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 042012Z - 042145Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across

eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota this

afternoon/evening, with potential for large hail and strong to

severe wind gusts.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased over the past hour

across portions of eastern South Dakota along/ahead of a slow moving

surface cold front currently extending southwestward from near the

ND/SD/MN border to south-central South Dakota. Ahead of this

boundary, latest objective analysis indicates lingering inhibition

is eroding, with warming temperatures contributing to MLCAPE of

1500-2000 J/kg. While a marginal increase in mid-level flow is

expected through the evening, effective shear will remain weaker

than areas farther west (generally remaining less than 30-35 kts).

This is likely to support an initially discrete storm mode (with

marginal supercell structures possible) with a gradual transition to

a more outflow-dominant, multicellular storm mode.



While mid-level lapse rates are not as steep compared to areas

farther west (evident via a comparison of the 18z UNR and ABR

observed soundings), large hail will be possible with initially

discrete convection and more robust updrafts. Steep low-level lapse

rates will also promote a risk for strong to severe wind gusts. A

brief tornado/landspout also cannot be ruled out should a stronger

low-level updraft interact with marginally enhanced surface vertical

vorticity/low-level shear in close proximity to the surface front.

Trends are being monitored for possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch

issuance.



..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/04/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...



LAT...LON   43289941 44029936 44139934 44389861 44659813 45099763

            45509739 45699705 45799668 45879633 45879600 45789562

            45639553 45419544 44919541 44349567 43849607 43349652

            43089737 43049813 43029869 43079917 43289941 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN