ACUS11 KWNS 040032

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 040032 

TXZ000-NMZ000-040230-



Mesoscale Discussion 0974

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0732 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026



Areas affected...East and northeast New Mexico



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 040032Z - 040230Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Localized severe gusts appear possible over the next hour

or two as convective bands migrate east into a buoyant air mass.



DISCUSSION...Reflectivity and velocity imagery from KFDX shows a

pair of convective bands propagating southeast across east and

northeast NM. Based on the speed of propagation and lack of

appreciable shear in the region, these bands are mainly being driven

by cold pool propagation into a buoyant air mass. Latest RAP

mesoanalysis depicts a regional buoyancy maximum immediately

downstream across east-central NM, which should maintain the bands

and may promote some degree of intensification. Additionally,

low-level lapse rates were recently analyzed at about 9 C/km, which

will facilitate momentum transfer to the surface. Consequently, some

potential for localized severe gusts could manifest over the next

hour or so before the onset of nocturnal cooling and boundary layer

stabilization.



..Moore/Guyer.. 06/04/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...



LAT...LON   34920529 35150483 35540450 36060427 36450391 36580345

            36500312 36220292 35200293 34870310 34660341 34520382

            34520450 34610494 34670504 34920529 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH